Cashew Market Firms as Indian Demand and Costs Climb

Indian cashew prices are moving higher as stronger export and domestic buying meets rising raw nut costs, pointing to a firmer market into the festival season. The cashew market has turned decisively supportive in India after a weak first half of 2026. Raw cashew nut (RCN) prices in key African origins have risen sharply, squeezing processors just as export interest from Gulf buyers, Japan and others improves. At the same time, domestic festival demand is gaining momentum and cashews remain relatively affordable versus almonds and pistachios. With India covering only a small share of its kernel needs from local production and relying heavily on Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Tanzania, the market is now more sensitive to imported RCN costs and logistics. This combination points to further upside risk for kernel prices in the near term.

Prices

Kernel prices in India have already increased by about $0.21–0.26 per kg in recent weeks, with market participants expecting an additional rise of roughly $0.26–0.31 per kg if demand continues to strengthen. This reflects both cost push from more expensive RCN and a clear improvement in export and domestic buying.

Price data for late July confirm a firming trend. Converting indicative offers at an assumed 1 EUR = 1.09 USD, Indian W320 FOB New Delhi around $7.10/kg equates to roughly 6.51 EUR/kg, while W450 at $6.40/kg is about 5.87 EUR/kg. Premium organic W320 lots near $8.75/kg translate to around 8.03 EUR/kg.

Supply & Demand

India’s cashew processing industry is structurally import-dependent: domestic RCN production covers only about 8–10% of kernel requirements, leaving processors heavily reliant on supplies from Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Tanzania. Over the past 20–25 days, African RCN prices have risen by approximately $150–200 per tonne, lifting input costs and pressuring margins.

In the first half of 2026, Indian kernel exports were subdued, even as raw nut imports rose. This mismatch forced many processors to cut throughput and increased financial stress. Alleged unauthorised imports of processed kernels also weighed on domestic prices before tighter regulation brought those flows better under control.

From July, the demand picture has changed markedly. Buyers in Gulf markets have returned strongly, helped by improved trade routes and logistics. Enquiries from Japan and other destinations are growing, while Indian festival-season consumption is picking up. Because almonds, pistachios and other nuts remain significantly more expensive, cashews retain a relative price advantage in the consumer basket, supporting substitution in favour of cashews.

Fundamentals & Margins

The rapid increase in African RCN prices has not yet been fully passed through to kernel quotations, implying that processor margins remain tight. Earlier in the year, weak export demand prevented kernel prices from adjusting in line with raw material costs. The current rebound in demand now allows processors to seek higher kernel prices to restore profitability.

Processing economics are therefore a central driver for the coming weeks. If RCN prices remain elevated or rise further while freight costs stay firm, Indian processors will likely push more aggressively for kernel price increases. Any delay in downstream acceptance could again compress margins and trigger another round of production cuts, tightening kernel availability later in the season.

Short-Term Outlook

With raw material costs elevated, export demand recovering and domestic festival buying accelerating, the near-term balance of risks for cashew prices is skewed to the upside. Market participants already anticipate an additional kernel price increase of roughly $0.26–0.31 per kg, which would correspond to around 0.24–0.28 EUR/kg at current exchange rates.

New and improved export routes to the Gulf and East Asia should help sustain shipment flows from India, while tighter control of unauthorised kernel imports supports domestic market confidence. The key uncertainties are the durability of demand in price-sensitive markets and any further volatility in African RCN offers. Overall, buyers face a strengthening market with limited downside while cost and demand risks are tilted toward further firming.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Consider covering a larger share of Q4 2026 needs now, especially for W320 and W240 grades, before further cost pass-through from higher RCN prices materialises.
• Importers & distributors: Prioritise securing Indian and Vietnamese kernel volumes under flexible shipment schedules, as any renewed production cuts in India could tighten availability later in the season.
• Processors: Use current demand strength to lock in higher kernel sales prices, aiming to rebuild margins and hedge against further RCN price rises from African origins.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA): W320 and W450 kernels expected to trade slightly higher in EUR terms over the next three days, with firm bids from export and domestic buyers.
• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): Prices likely to remain firm to slightly higher, tracking the cost of imported African RCN and Indian market strength.
• EU (Netherlands, FCA): Kernel prices seen steady to marginally firmer as importers adjust offers in line with higher replacement costs from origins.