Cashew Market Softens as Indian Demand Stays Cautious

Cashew prices are under gentle downward pressure as demand from key Indian consuming segments remains sluggish, keeping market conditions soft but generally stable. The cashew market in early June 2026 is characterized by weak offtake from Indian retailers, dry-fruit traders and sweets manufacturers, who are avoiding large stock positions and buying only selectively. Wholesale kernels in New Delhi are reported around USD 9.53/kg (≈ EUR 8.80/kg), indicating that physical availability is not a constraint, but consumption is lagging. Export quotations from India and Vietnam show only marginal changes over recent weeks, pointing to a broadly sideways to slightly easier trend. Near term, prices are expected to stay affordable unless a demand pickup from domestic festivals or international buyers materializes.

Prices & Spreads

Wholesale cashew prices in New Delhi remain soft, with kernels quoted around USD 9.53/kg (≈ EUR 8.80/kg) at the wholesale level, reflecting muted demand rather than acute supply tightness. Buyers focus on high-quality lots, but even premium grades are not attracting aggressive bidding.

Export and European hub quotations confirm a mild downward bias. Indicative current offers in EUR for key grades are:

Most listed offers have moved only a few cents over recent weeks, underlining a soft but not collapsing market. Price differentials between origins and grades remain relatively narrow, limiting arbitrage opportunities.

Supply & Demand Balance

Fundamentally, the current softness is demand-driven. Retailers and dry-fruit traders in India report slow consumer offtake and prefer hand-to-mouth procurement, avoiding building stocks ahead of monsoon-season uncertainties. Sweets manufacturers show similar caution, which reduces bulk kernel buying.

On the supply side, there are no signs of acute raw nut shortages in key producing regions. Processors in India and Vietnam continue to offer a broad range of grades, and quality material still finds selective buying interest. However, without stronger pull from consuming centres, this available supply translates into a buyer’s market with negotiable premiums and discounts.

Fundamentals & Near-Term Outlook

The combination of adequate supply and restrained demand suggests that cashew prices are likely to remain affordable in the near term. The absence of strong upward drivers—such as festival-led demand spikes, freight shocks or weather-related crop scares—keeps the upside limited for now. Processors are more focused on maintaining throughput and cash flow than on aggressively raising offers.

Any meaningful shift would need a clear improvement in consumption from domestic Indian channels or renewed interest from international snack and confectionery buyers. Until then, the market is expected to trade in a narrow range, with quality differentials and contract terms (FOB vs FCA, organic vs conventional) driving most of the price variation rather than a broad trend move.

Trading Strategy & 3-Day Price Indication

• Buyers (roasters, packers, confectioners): Use the current soft tone to secure short- to medium-term coverage in preferred grades, staggering purchases to benefit from any additional dips. Prioritize quality and reliable origins while negotiating on logistics and payment terms.
• Importers & traders: Maintain moderate inventories and focus on back-to-back or short forward sales, as the market lacks clear bullish catalysts. Consider blending lower-cost pieces and splits into product mixes to protect margins.
• Processors: Avoid overcommitting at fixed low prices far forward; instead, offer in smaller tranches and keep flexibility to respond if demand recovers ahead of festival seasons.

3-day directional outlook (all in EUR terms):

• India, New Delhi FOB (W320/W450): stable to slightly soft.
• Vietnam, Hanoi FOB (WW grades): broadly stable, narrow range.
• EU hub (NL, FCA): stable with mild downside risk if demand stays weak.