Cashew Market: Softer Activity Despite Firmer Raw Nut Import Costs

Vietnam’s cashew market is entering a softer trading phase: import volumes dipped in July while average raw nut prices continued to rise, and quiet kernel demand is now pushing spot values slightly lower. Buyers are cautious, bidding down for raw nuts and kernels despite a structurally well-supplied Vietnamese processing sector. After a strong start to 2026, with Vietnam’s January–July raw cashew imports up 1.9% year on year, recent weeks have seen a clear loss of momentum in physical trading. Higher average import prices are squeezing processor margins just as kernel demand cools, especially from price-sensitive snack and ingredient segments. The market balance has shifted from supply risk to demand risk, with origin spreads widening and buyers showing little urgency to cover forward.

Prices

In July 2026, Vietnam imported 255,888 metric tonnes of raw cashew nuts, 13.7% less than a year earlier, but at an average price 6.7% higher at about USD 1,572 per tonne. Over January–July, total imports reached 1.933 million tonnes, up 1.9% year on year, with the average cost rising 7.8% to USD 1,664 per tonne. This confirms a clear upward drift in raw nut values through 2026 despite the latest softening in spot activity.

Indicative raw nut offers currently range from around USD 1,485 per tonne for Ivory Coast material to roughly USD 1,710 per tonne for Guinea-Bissau and Senegal origins, reflecting a wide quality and origin premium structure. At the same time, EU-delivered kernel prices are broadly stable: Dutch FCA offers for conventional SWP stand near EUR 3.10/kg, with organic SWP at about EUR 4.65/kg and organic LWP around EUR 5.00/kg. Vietnamese FOB WW320 kernels are around EUR 6.40–6.60/kg equivalent, while Indian FOB WW320 are closer to EUR 6.60–7.00/kg, leaving modest room for processor margins after higher raw nut costs.

Supply & Demand

Cambodia has emerged as the key raw cashew origin for Vietnam so far in 2026, supplying 997,807 tonnes and accounting for roughly 52% of the country’s January–July imports. Ivory Coast remains the largest West African origin with 288,046 tonnes, followed by Nigeria at 144,521 tonnes and Ghana at 96,631 tonnes. In July alone, Ivory Coast led with 100,561 tonnes at USD 1,620 per tonne, ahead of Nigeria (46,343 tonnes at USD 1,530) and Ghana (35,493 tonnes at USD 1,479), while Cambodia contributed 17,938 tonnes at a higher average of USD 1,824.

This diversified origin mix underpins Vietnam’s processing capacity but also reinforces competition among suppliers, particularly between West Africa and Cambodia. Despite the higher landed costs, market activity has weakened recently as kernel buyers scale back purchases. Quiet demand from roasting plants and food manufacturers has encouraged them to reduce bids, resulting in very few completed trades. Processors holding relatively comfortable raw nut coverage are therefore more focused on managing kernel sales rather than chasing additional RCN volumes.

Fundamentals

The January–July import increase of 1.9% alongside a 7.8% higher average import price points to a market where supply is ample but not cheap. The strong share of high-priced Cambodian raw nuts lifts the overall cost base, while more competitively priced West African origins such as Ghana and Nigeria help cap the upside. The current offer range from USD 1,485 to 1,710 per tonne illustrates the origin and quality stratification that buyers can exploit.

However, downstream kernel demand is not keeping pace. Quiet inquiry levels and lower bids are eroding processor bargaining power, particularly for mid-grade kernels such as SWP and LWP. With EU FCA prices for conventional SWP around EUR 3.10/kg and organic WW320 near EUR 6.15/kg in the Netherlands, spreads over raw nut costs are thinner than earlier in the year. This suggests a fragile balance where any further softening in kernel demand would quickly translate into additional pressure on raw nut offers.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

In the near term, the cashew market looks set to trade sideways to slightly softer, driven more by demand-side caution than by supply constraints. Vietnam’s substantial raw nut intake over the first seven months of 2026 ensures adequate kernel availability, while the latest slowdown in buying interest caps price rallies. Unless there is a notable recovery in kernel off-take from major consuming regions, raw nut premiums for higher-priced origins like Guinea-Bissau and Senegal may face resistance.

• Kernel buyers (EU/US importers): Consider gradual scale-down purchasing in conventional grades (WW320, SWP, LWP) over the next few weeks, using current stable FCA levels around EUR 3–5/kg for pieces and EUR 5–7/kg for wholes to rebuild working stocks without significant upside risk.
• Processors in Vietnam: Prioritise kernel sales and margin protection over additional raw nut coverage. Use the current origin price spread (about USD 1,485–1,710/tonne) to favour competitively priced West African supplies if further coverage is required, while resisting overly high offers from premium origins unless quality or timing is critical.
• Retail and brand owners: Lock in promotional volumes of conventional kernels now, as upstream raw nut costs remain elevated even though spot kernel prices have softened. This helps secure margins in case of any later rebound in demand or logistics costs.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)