Chinese Pumpkin Market Holds Steady: High Prices, Low Activity, Trade Eyes Post-Holiday Rebound

The Chinese pumpkin (seed) market is currently navigating a complex period marked by limited activity and differentiated regional dynamics, stemming largely from the effects of the Spring Festival holiday. Exporters report that transaction volumes have been subdued, with significant portions of export orders delayed and awaiting shipment post-holiday. The bulk of remaining inventories, across key production regions, are concentrated in the hands of traders, who are maintaining stable price levels while closely watching for changes in the period following the festival. Meanwhile, domestic market appetite remains muted, as end-users show little urgency to restock or drive new demand, resulting in a “wait and see” sentiment dominating trading floors.

Across major pumpkin-producing provinces, divergent conditions are apparent: Xinjiang faces logistical constraints and traders’ reluctance to release stock, which is sustaining high price levels. In Gansu, inventories are nearly depleted and the scarcity of premium-quality goods is increasingly evident, prompting local holders to express strong confidence in post-holiday markets. Inner Mongolia has only limited transaction activity, sustained by local processing needs and small-scale export replenishment. On the export front, contract size has diminished, with larger long-term orders replaced by smaller, scattered purchases, while low-grade material remains less attractive relative to quality-focused buyers. The overall pace of transactions, both domestic and international, is thus noticeably slow. As the market awaits a post-holiday revival, price stability prevails yet upward catalysts are restrained by lackluster downstream demand.

📈 Prices

Type / Grade	Purity	Organic	Origin / Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Change (w/w)	Sentiment
GWS, Grade AA	99.95%	No	China / Dalian	3.35	0.00	Stable
Shine Skin, Grade AA	99.95%	No	China / Dalian	3.45	0.00	Stable
GWS, Grade A	99.95%	No	China / Dalian	3.15	0.00	Stable

(Sample selection: indicative offers, FOB China, 21-Feb-2026)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export Market: Order flows fragmented; post-holiday shipment delays; large contract volumes reduced; value for lower grades weak.
• Xingjiang: High prices maintained amid tight logistics and limited selling motivation.
• Gansu: Stocks reaching exhaustion; premium quality especially scarce; optimism among inventory holders.
• Inner Mongolia: Trading activity driven by domestic processors and minor external orders; mostly supported by export pipeline needs.
• Domestic Market: End-user demand soft; restocking minimal; vendors show strong reluctance to commit to new purchases.

📊 Fundamentals

• Most inventory lies with traders, keeping overall supply tight but balanced by slow demand.
• Distinct region-by-region realities: local stock status and processor needs dictate price floors.
• Export demand and spec quality preferences shape transaction dynamics; lower grades face weak bids.
• Flow of new contracts is slow, contributing to market inertia pending post-holiday reactivation.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Major Growing Regions: Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia are not currently in planting or harvesting phases due to winter.
• Near-term weather has limited impact, but upcoming season weather will be critical for acreage and yield outlooks.
• Current logistics are more affected by transportation bottlenecks than weather disruptions.

🌐 Global Positioning

• China remains dominant in global pumpkin seed exports, especially for in-shell and kernel grades.
• Comparatively few external competitors with similar volumes or price/quality positioning in the global market.
• Core export markets continue to focus on premium, food-quality seeds, impacting the bid/offer spread for lower grades.

📌 Market Drivers & Analysis

• Seasonal holiday effects have suppressed spot and forward flows—participants anticipate pent-up orders in the coming weeks.
• Trader-held supplies, and their willingness to release product, will steer the post-holiday price direction.
• Processors’ ongoing needs, particularly in Inner Mongolia, are crucial marginal demand drivers for the near term.
• Sentiment is cautiously optimistic in Gansu due to ultra-low stocks of premium quality, hinting at possible price firming post-holiday if demand revives.
• Speculative interest is low: most participants are risk averse in the absence of clear demand catalysts.

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor post-holiday demand—delayed export orders may provide a modest boost to movement and potentially prices.
• Premium quality lots (esp. Gansu) may see bullish momentum if buyer demand emerges.
• Risk-averse buyers may seek coverage as stockholders hold out for higher offers; traders with inventory can exert pricing leverage in tight pockets.
• Patience warranted for value buyers—no urgency for immediate entry, stable conditions for now.
• Positioning in lower grades should be cautious given ongoing weak bid-side interest.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Indicative, FOB China)

Type / Grade	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend (3 days)
GWS, Grade AA	3.35	3.35 – 3.40	Stable/Sideways
Shine Skin, Grade AA	3.45	3.45 – 3.50	Stable/Bullish (if demand revives)
GWS, Grade A	3.15	3.15	Stable