Dried Apricot Prices Steady to Firm as Turkish New Crop Approaches

Dried apricot prices from Türkiye are broadly stable to slightly firmer this week, with modest gains in European FCA cubes and flat FOB quotations out of Malatya for both sulphured and unsulphured fruit. Calm spring weather in eastern Türkiye removes immediate frost risk, so the market is focusing more on tight farmer selling and currency/inflation dynamics than on weather shocks.

Overall liquidity remains thin, but nearby replacement costs from Türkiye suggest limited downside, while European inventories keep a lid on sharp rallies in the very short term. Buyers with coverage through summer can stay patient, but short positions into Q2 now carry a mildly higher risk of price creep if pre-season export demand accelerates.

📈 Prices & Spreads

FOB Malatya/Ankara offers for conventional Turkish dried apricots remain unchanged since 1 April. Unsulphured sizes 1–5 are indicated around EUR 8.55–8.00/kg FOB, while sulphured 2,000 ppm grades trade in a narrower band near EUR 7.90–7.20/kg FOB, with jumbo no. 1 sulphured close to EUR 8.70/kg FOB. These levels mark a stabilisation after the downward adjustments seen in mid‑March.

In Europe, FCA Dordrecht prices for Turkish-origin cubes have inched higher versus late March. Most cuts gained around EUR 0.05/kg over the last pricing round, while 8–10 mm industrial cubes are now about EUR 3.35/kg FCA. Polish FCA Lodz indications for TR-1123 no. 8 material are steady at roughly EUR 5.15/kg, confirming a broadly sideways to slightly firmer tone across key distribution hubs.

Market	Product	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	W/W Move
Malatya/TR	Unsulphured no. 4	FOB	8.00	Stable
Malatya/TR	Sulphured no. 5	FOB	7.20	Stable
Dordrecht/NL	Cubes no. 5	FCA	6.05	+0.15
Dordrecht/NL	Cubes 8–10 mm	FCA	3.35	+0.05
Lodz/PL	no. 8 TR‑1123	FCA	5.15	Stable

🌍 Supply, Demand & Macro Backdrop

Apricot orchards in eastern Türkiye are entering full bloom under benign conditions. Recent imagery from neighbouring Elazığ, a key apricot area close to Malatya, shows widespread blossoming at the end of March with no reported frost damage, pointing to a normal yield expectation at this early stage. This contrasts with previous seasons where late frosts severely reduced production, and helps explain the current lack of weather‑driven risk premium in prices.

On the macro side, Türkiye’s broader export environment has softened, with total exports down year‑on‑year and the trade gap widening into March, while inflation remains elevated around 31% and financial conditions tight. For dried apricot exporters, this combination encourages hard currency sales but also raises local financing costs, which tends to keep farmer and processor asking prices supported even when overseas demand is only moderate. EU demand remains structurally important, with agricultural products still a key leg of Türkiye’s export basket to Europe.

🌦 Weather Outlook – Malatya & Eastern Türkiye

The 3‑day forecast for Malatya (8–10 April) points to mostly stable, cool spring weather: highs around 10–15°C, lows 4–6°C, with a mix of clouds, sunshine and only brief showers expected. These temperatures remain above critical frost thresholds for apricot blossoms, implying minimal short‑term weather risk for the developing crop.

Given the sensitivity of Malatya apricots to late frosts in past years, the absence of any imminent cold spells below freezing is market‑reassuring. Unless an unexpected cold wave emerges later in April, current conditions support a baseline scenario of normal fruit set and reinforce the present sideways price structure rather than triggering new speculative buying.

📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals

Fundamentally, Turkish dried apricot supply is still shaped by the reduced 2025 crop after previous spring frosts, which tightened farmer stocks and encouraged a more disciplined selling pattern. Export‑oriented packers report steady inquiries from EU and Middle Eastern buyers, but without the aggressive forward buying seen in extreme shortage years, keeping the market balanced for now.

Inflation and currency dynamics in Türkiye also remain pivotal. High local input costs (labour, energy, packaging) and the need for hard‑currency revenue limit the willingness of origin to concede discounts below current FOB levels, especially on higher‑value unsulphured and organic grades. Downstream, European retail and foodservice channels continue to prefer Turkish origin for quality and certifications, which anchors Turkish material as the reference for pricing despite some competition from Central Asian suppliers.

📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers with cover through Q2: No urgency to chase the market; consider light scale‑down bids near current FCA levels, but expect limited seller flexibility on premium sizes and unsulphured lots.
• Spot and short‑covered buyers: Use any small dips to secure minimum coverage into early summer; weather and macro risks favour a mildly upward bias rather than renewed price weakness.
• Exporters/packers in Türkiye: With stable weather and constrained financing, holding offers around current FOB is justified; only weaker‑moving items (industrial cubes, small sizes) may warrant tactical discounts to stimulate demand.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Malatya/Ankara FOB (sulphured & unsulphured): Sideways bias; prices expected to remain within EUR ±0.10/kg of current quotes over the next three days, barring any surprise macro news.
• EU FCA (Dordrecht, Lodz): Slightly firm tone; local replacement costs from Türkiye suggest a mild upward skew, but abundant stocks should cap moves to at most EUR 0.05–0.10/kg near term.
• Overall direction (TR origin dried apricots): Stable to modestly firmer over 3 days, with low immediate weather risk and supportive origin economics.