Dried Figs Tighten as Old Crop Fades and New Season Quality Looks Strong

Old-crop dried figs are in a classic squeeze: exportable volumes are nearly exhausted, farmers are reluctant sellers and high-quality pollinated new-crop figs are already commanding very strong prices. With pollination progressing well through the end of June, quality prospects look positive, pointing to a firm to higher price bias into the new marketing year. The market is transitioning between an almost-finished 2025/26 dried fig season and the forming 2026/27 crop. Export flows that once targeted Europe have largely shifted to the Middle East as European-standard grades have effectively run out. At the same time, domestic demand is picking up ahead of the Ashura season, further absorbing residual stocks. Farmers, focused on intensive pollination to secure a premium-quality new crop, are withholding remaining old-crop volumes, making reliable price discovery difficult and supporting current levels.

Prices & Market Structure

End-of-season tightness defines the dried figs market. Export-grade old-crop material that meets European specifications is almost unavailable, with remaining cold-store stocks already absorbed into the market. Exports are now concentrated on Middle Eastern destinations, where quality requirements are somewhat more flexible and buyers are still active.

FOB Malatya offers for Turkish dried figs are broadly steady across recent weeks. Indicative quotations for natural figs range roughly from about EUR 7.2–9.1/kg for No: 7–1, while Lerida types trade around EUR 5.7–9.3/kg for No: 7–1, depending on size and presentation. The price curve remains clearly size- and quality-inverted: larger, better-looking fruit commands a widening premium, and for the best high-quality pollinated figs, workable offers are often replaced by one-off, negotiated deals only.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

On the supply side, the market is effectively at the tail end of old-crop availability. Stocks that satisfy stringent European quality standards are described as "hardly existing", which explains the near standstill in exports to Europe. What remains in origin is largely secondary-grade fruit or lots more suited to regional Middle Eastern buyers, who have become the dominant export outlet at this stage of the season.

Domestic Turkish demand is seasonally strengthening as the Ashura period approaches, boosting internal consumption of dried figs. This seasonal uptick coincides with already low stock levels, intensifying competition for the last remaining lots. Farmers are notably reluctant to sell what little product they still hold, preferring to wait until new-season price ideas are clearer and potentially higher, which further constrains spot availability and complicates price discovery.

Fundamentals & New-Crop Outlook

In the orchards, the focus has shifted decisively to the 2026/27 crop. Pollination is progressing at full speed and is expected to continue until the end of June. Growers are giving exceptional priority to this stage to enhance size, internal structure and sugar development, all of which are critical for producing top-tier dried figs that can access premium export markets and achieve high prices.

Preliminary indications point to strong demand for high-quality, well-pollinated figs, as reflected in the currently "very high" prices achieved for such grades in early deals. Meanwhile, weekly export statistics over the season show a solid, if slightly reduced, export campaign compared with the previous year, with average export unit values higher year-on-year. This aligns with the observed pattern of tighter availability of high-grade fruit and robust buying interest for better qualities.

Weather & Pollination Conditions

Weather in Turkey’s key fig regions (Aydın and İzmir provinces) in mid-June is generally supportive for pollination. Daytime temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s °C with mostly dry conditions dominate the outlook for the coming days, creating a favourable environment for the fig–wasp pollination process and for early fruit set. Limited short-lived showers are not expected to materially disrupt orchard operations.

These warm, largely stable conditions allow farmers to sustain the intensive pollination work planned through the end of June. Provided there are no late adverse weather shocks, this should underpin both yield potential and internal fruit quality for the new dried fig crop, reinforcing expectations of a high-quality offering that can justify the currently firm price structure.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• For buyers: Old-crop European-standard figs are effectively unavailable; users with strict quality specifications should plan around higher new-crop replacement costs. Where possible, secure forward coverage for premium grades early in the new season, as strong pollination and tight farmer selling suggest limited downside on top qualities.
• For sellers/farmers: Reluctance to release remaining stocks is justified by the combination of low availability, Ashura-driven local demand and expected strong new-season pricing. Maintaining a disciplined selling pace, especially for high-quality lots, should help capture the current price strength.
• For traders: The risk/reward favours a moderately bullish stance on quality-differentiated dried figs. Spreads between export-grade and off-grade material are likely to widen further as the market transitions into the new crop, rewarding careful quality selection and origin relationships.

Short-Term Price Direction (Next 3 Days)

• Turkey FOB (Aegean/Malatya): Old-crop offers for standard grades broadly steady to slightly firmer, with very limited availability and mostly nominal quotes.
• Premium export grades: Bias remains upward; pricing largely on a negotiated, case-by-case basis due to scarcity and strong expectations for high-quality new-crop fruit.
• Middle East destination markets: Stable to mildly firm CIF indications as regional demand continues and origin shows no pressure to sell remaining old-crop volumes.