El Niño Squeezes Pineapple: Costa Rica Risks and Stable Dried Prices

Costa Rica’s pineapple sector is entering a period of elevated risk: El Niño‑related weather extremes, higher production and logistics costs, and a sharply stronger colón threaten margins and could trim exportable volumes by 10–20% in the first half of 2027. Global buyers of fresh and processed pineapple face growing uncertainty over medium‑term supply from one of the world’s key origins. While fresh export volumes from Costa Rica remain broadly comparable to 2025 for now, sharply divergent rainfall patterns, rising input and freight costs and a major currency appreciation are eroding grower profitability. At the same time, dried pineapple prices in Europe and Asia are currently stable to slightly softer, suggesting demand remains steady but has not yet priced in the potential 2027 supply shock.

Prices

Dried pineapple quotations in key trade hubs have been broadly stable over September 2026, with only marginal moves:

The modest easing in Vietnamese FOB prices contrasts with flat quotations for Thai FCA product, indicating that current market focus is still on short‑term demand rather than on Costa Rica’s medium‑term supply risk.

Supply & Demand

Costa Rica, a critical supplier of fresh pineapple, is already seeing El Niño‑driven weather divergence. Some production zones face notable rainfall deficits, while Atlantic‑influenced areas are receiving excessive precipitation, with Pital recording over 900 mm of rain in August. This spatial volatility raises the risk of both drought stress and quality issues such as waterlogging and disease pressure.

Fresh export volumes so far in 2026 remain close to 2025 levels, but the outlook for the first half of 2027 is clearly weaker. Industry assessments point to a potential 10–20% reduction in exportable fruit, contingent on the intensity and regional distribution of El Niño during the coming main production cycles. At the same time, global demand for fresh and processed pineapple remains firm, suggesting that any realized volume loss from Costa Rica would have an outsized price impact, particularly in higher‑quality segments.

Weather & El Niño Outlook

El Niño conditions are firmly established and are expected to strengthen into a very strong event during late 2026, with impacts likely extending well into 2027. Recent international and regional climate outlooks point to a high probability that El Niño will persist through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter, with classic rainfall anomalies across Central America, including increased drought risk in parts of the region and localized heavy rains elsewhere.

For Costa Rica specifically, the national meteorological service projects below‑normal rainfall for much of the Pacific region, Central Valley and parts of the Northern Zone over the coming weeks, while Caribbean and some northern areas remain wetter. This pattern is consistent with the current field situation: some pineapple zones face moisture deficits, while Atlantic‑influenced areas experience excess rainfall. If these contrasting conditions persist into early 2027, yield reductions and quality downgrades for export fruit become increasingly likely.

Fundamentals & Cost Pressures

The sector’s vulnerability is amplified by a sharp appreciation of the Costa Rican colón, which has strengthened by roughly 30% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2026. For exporters who invoice predominantly in USD, this significantly reduces local‑currency revenues and squeezes margins, particularly for small and medium‑sized growers with limited hedging options.

At the same time, production costs have risen across several key inputs: freight rates, imported fertilizers, diesel and packaging materials are all higher, while labour availability remains tight. Mechanisation is only partially feasible in pineapple production, limiting the sector’s ability to offset wage pressures. The combination of rising costs, currency headwinds and weather‑related yield risk leaves little buffer in the value chain and increases the likelihood of upward price adjustments if the expected 2027 volume shortfall materialises.

Market & Trading Outlook

With current dried pineapple prices stable and fresh export volumes still comparable to 2025, the market has not yet fully priced in Costa Rica’s projected 10–20% decline in exportable fruit for the first half of 2027. However, the convergence of a strengthening El Niño, uneven rainfall patterns in key growing regions and intensifying cost and currency pressures argues for a more cautious stance in procurement.

• Importers / industrial users: Consider extending coverage modestly into early 2027 for both fresh and processed pineapple, prioritising quality‑sensitive contracts. Diversify origin mix where possible, while monitoring margins given currently stable dried prices.
• Growers and exporters in Costa Rica: Focus on agronomic measures to manage both drought and excess moisture, and on maintaining export quality. Explore currency and price risk management tools where feasible, as local‑currency returns are under pressure.
• Traders: Watch for early signals of tightening—such as downgrade rates, packing‑house rejections or shifts in availability from Costa Rica—potentially creating medium‑term upside in premium grades and in origin‑linked processed products.

3‑Day Directional Price View

• Dried pineapple, VN, FOB Hanoi: Sideways to slightly soft over the next three trading days, with recent moves already reflecting near‑term demand.
• Dried pineapple, TH, FCA Dordrecht: Stable, with quotes unchanged in late September and no immediate catalyst for short‑term volatility.
• Fresh export market (Costa Rica): Spot and near‑term prices expected to remain relatively steady, but risk premium for forward positions into early 2027 is likely to build if El Niño impacts intensify.