EU Sugar Prices Slightly Increase – Market Remains Subdued
Sugar prices in the EU have slightly increased by €0.01/kg, now ranging between €0.51/kg and €0.55/kg FCA. Despite this rise, demand remains weak as many major buyers have already secured long-term contracts. At the same time, reports of a drastic decline in sugar production in India are causing uncertainty in global markets. Additionally, a new analysis shows that sugar consumption in Germany and the EU has decreased by 10%, amounting to 260,000 tons in Germany and 1.65 million tons across the EU. Will this trigger a price rally, or will the market remain stable? A comprehensive market overview.
Latest Developments in ICE Sugar No. 5 (Converted to EUR) – February 10, 2025
With the current exchange rate of 0.92 USD/EUR, the adjusted closing prices for Sugar No. 5 are:
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 519.40 | 477.85 | +1.56 | +0.33% |
| May 2025 | 503.60 | 463.31 | +1.01 | +0.22% |
| August 2025 | 487.40 | 448.41 | +2.48 | +0.55% |
| October 2025 | 479.90 | 440.71 | +3.31 | +0.75% |
| December 2025 | 479.40 | 440.25 | +3.59 | +0.81% |
EU Market: Slight Price Increase Despite Weak Demand
- Sugar prices in the EU have increased by €0.01/kg, now ranging between €0.51/kg and €0.55/kg FCA.
- Despite this slight increase, demand remains weak, as many major buyers have already secured long-term contracts.
- It is estimated that 30% of sugar demand is still uncovered, which could lead to a late buying wave.
Sugar Consumption in Germany and the EU Drops by 10%
- In Germany, the estimated decline in sugar demand amounts to 260,000 tons per year.
- Across the EU, the estimated reduction is even higher at 1.65 million tons per year.
- This decline could lead to a supply surplus, increasing price pressure in the long run.
India: Production Decline Could Impact Global Prices
- India’s sugar production is expected to drop by 17% to 26.52 million tons, according to the All-India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA).
- Sugar stocks could fall below historical averages, leaving only 4.50 million tons as ending stock for September 2025.
- The festival season (October-November) is expected to increase India’s sugar demand to 4.80-5.00 million tons, posing a potential risk of shortages and rising export prices.
International Market Trends and Influencing Factors
- Recent reports indicate that sugar consumption in Germany decreased by 10% in the 2023/24 economic year.
- Weak consumer demand in the EU could further pressure prices, while global shortages might drive them higher.
Conclusion: Market Remains Stable, But Risks Persist
📈 Why could prices increase?
- India’s production decline could impact the global market.
- Speculators might push futures higher if supply concerns persist.
📉 Why could prices decrease?
- EU demand remains weak, as major buyers have already secured contracts.
- Global sugar stocks remain high, preventing immediate supply concerns.
- The 1.65 million-ton decline in EU sugar consumption could further suppress prices.
📊 What’s next for the market?
While EU sugar prices have risen slightly, market uncertainty remains. India’s production issues may have long-term effects, but the decline in EU sugar consumption could limit price increases. Market participants should closely monitor these opposing trends.
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