Palm Oil Market: Range-Bound Moves Amid Currency and Export Pressure

The palm oil market remains at a crossroads as participants grapple with conflicting influences. After witnessing three consecutive sessions of mild declines, Malaysian palm oil futures exhibit signs of uncertainty, hovering in search of a new direction. The driving forces behind recent weakness include a firmer Malaysian ringgit and subdued export data, both acting as headwinds. In addition, falling crude oil prices have dented the palm oil trade, dampening hopes for a robust near-term recovery. As competitors—such as soy oil on the CBOT—enjoy renewed bullishness on the back of robust Chinese demand and surging prices, palm oil appears momentarily sidelined and sensitive to currency and export swings.

Traders are attentive to macroeconomic cues and weather patterns in key growing regions, hoping for clarity as the market digests evolving global vegetable oil dynamics. While medium-term support may come from global oilseed dynamics, near-term sentiment for palm oil futures remains guarded. This report delivers a structured breakdown of current palm oil prices, supply-demand metrics, fundamental shifts, and trading strategies, equipping market professionals and observers with a comprehensive review of market drivers and a clear outlook for the days ahead.

📈 Prices: Latest MDEX Palm Oil Futures (MYR/ton)

Contract	Previous	Open	High	Low	Close	Date	Change	Change (%)	Volume	Market Sentiment
Mar 26	4017.00	4009.00	4026.00	4003.00	4023.00	25.02.2026	6.00	+0.15	716	Neutral/Bearish
Apr 26	4048.00	4042.00	4053.00	4031.00	4049.00	25.02.2026	1.00	+0.02	1941	Neutral
May 26	4053.00	4047.00	4060.00	4035.00	4053.00	25.02.2026	0.00	0.00	5211	Sideways
Jun 26	4054.00	4049.00	4060.00	4034.00	4055.00	25.02.2026	1.00	0.02	1329	Flat
Jul 26	4052.00	4046.00	4055.00	4034.00	4052.00	25.02.2026	0.00	0.00	528	Neutral
Sep 26	4044.00	4040.00	4051.00	4027.00	4045.00	25.02.2026	1.00	+0.02	179	Neutral
Nov 26	4041.00	4034.00	4047.00	4024.00	4045.00	25.02.2026	4.00	+0.10	228	Slight Positive
Feb 27	4068.00	4060.00	4075.00	4041.00	4041.00	24.02.2026	-27.00	-0.67	298	Bearish

Market sentiment: Largely sideways-to-weak. Volatility remains contained with low percentage changes across front-month contracts.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Currency Impact: The appreciation of the Malaysian ringgit against major currencies has weighed on palm oil competitiveness for international buyers, curtailing export activity.
• Export Data: Weak recent export readings have contributed to softer prices and increased caution among traders.
• External Oilseed Influence: While palm oil faces downward pressure, the overall vegetable oil complex is supported by sharply rising soy oil prices (CBOT +25% YTD) driven by robust Chinese demand. European rapeseed and Canadian canola also benefit, but palm oil has decoupled from this strength due to regional factors.
• Crude Oil Link: Declining crude oil prices are a headwind, eroding palm oil’s value as a biodiesel feedstock and reducing speculative appetite.
• Competitive Landscape: Brazilian soy exports are forecast to hit 11.69 Mt in February (up from 9.73 Mt in Feb 2025), intensifying competition in the global vegetable oil market.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• USDA export sales and Chinese buying patterns in soybeans remain key indirect drivers. Recent Chinese soybean buying has paused due to the Lunar New Year, but the market eyes renewed buying post-holiday.
• No reported impact from recent US Supreme Court tariff decisions regarding China; Chinese demand outlook for oilseeds and edible oils is not expected to change in the near term.
• Market participants remain attentive to policy signals (e.g., China’s potential canola import tariff cuts in March).

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Palm Oil Growing Regions

• Malaysia & Indonesia: Current satellite and weather readings show mixed-to-favorable rainfall. No reports of major crop stress or production threats; palm oil output is expected to remain stable in the next few weeks.
• Weather risk: Watch for any developments with the tail end of El Niño, which could still inject short-term volatility if dryness emerges, but immediate impact is minimal.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	Palm Oil Production (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)	Commentary
Indonesia	47 (est.)	~4.0	Largest producer, stable production, seasonal uptick likely.
Malaysia	19 (est.)	~2.3	Flat-to-slight increase expected if weather remains favorable.
India (Import)	—-	N/A	World’s top importer; stocking pace subdued by weak exports and currency.
China (Import)	—-	N/A	Import demand paused for Lunar New Year; strong interest expected by March.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Range-bound to weak bias given prevailing export/currency/headwind signals.
• Bargain hunting may occur on dips, but sustained rallies will require a weaker ringgit and/or improved export data.
• Watch closely for pick-up in Chinese buying after Lunar New Year; strong soy oil may eventually support palm oil if global veg oil supplies tighten.
• Monitor crude oil for clues on biofuel demand: lasting weakness will cap upside for palm.
• Risk management: Maintain stop-losses given the sideways trade and possibility of sudden external shocks (weather, policy).

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast: MDEX Palm Oil (MYR/ton)

Date	Forecast Price Range	Bias	Comment
Day 1	4020–4050	Sideways	Sticky support on dips, upside capped by flattish exports.
Day 2	4010–4045	Slightly Bearish	Risks persist if ringgit firms further or crude oil weakens.
Day 3	4025–4060	Cautiously Neutral	Potential stabilization on renewed buying or export optimism.

Note: Price levels in MYR/ton, reflecting MDEX futures contracts. Forecasts subject to change on major macro or export news.