Apricots: Cautious Market as Malatya Waits Out Critical April Weather

Prices for Turkish dried apricots are broadly stable to slightly softer, while Malatya growers enter a critical April under heightened weather and disease risk. Weak export demand is limiting upside, but any renewed frost or disease-related yield loss could quickly tighten the balance. Recent heavy rains in Malatya have increased humidity-related disease and insect pressure, forcing farmers into close orchard monitoring. Many trees have already budded and some started blooming, making the coming nights particularly sensitive after last year’s damaging frost. On the demand side, exports remain slow; if prices ease further once the core risk month has passed, foreign buyers could return to the market to cover remaining 2025/26 needs.

Prices & Spot Market

FOB Malatya prices for conventional unsulphured dried apricots are currently around EUR 7.80–8.65/kg for sizes 5–2, with organic lots mostly above EUR 9.30/kg. Sulphured material trades lower, in the approximate EUR 6.30–7.90/kg range depending on calibre and location. Over March, key unsulphured grades have eased by roughly EUR 0.20–0.50/kg, reflecting slow export activity and a cautious stance among traders.

In European warehouses, Turkish dried apricot cubes in the Netherlands are offered mostly between EUR 5.52 and 6.45/kg FCA, while a popular fine whole grade in Poland is around EUR 5.15/kg FCA. This points to a gently softer tone in downstream prices compared with early March, but without signs of aggressive discounting. The market overall appears well supplied in the short term, yet nervous about weather-driven changes in the new crop outlook.

Supply, Weather & Orchard Conditions

Malatya has been hit by heavy rains in recent weeks. The resulting high humidity is fostering diseases and insect pressure, with some trees already drying out. Others remain in better condition thanks to timely pest control, creating a patchy picture across the region. Budding is advanced and early flowering has started, leaving orchards highly exposed to any cold snaps during April.

Local sentiment is tense: after last year’s frost damage, farmers are acutely aware that the coming weeks will define the new crop potential. The immediate 3‑day weather outlook around Malatya calls for mostly mild temperatures with intermittent rain and clouds rather than hard frost, which is supportive for blossom survival but keeps disease pressure elevated. Growers will need to maintain intensive monitoring and treatments to protect yield potential into mid-April.

Demand, Exports & Fundamentals

Export demand for Turkish dried apricots is currently described as quite slow. Importers in Europe and other key destinations are largely covered for nearby needs and are reluctant to commit to large forward volumes while the new crop risk profile remains unclear. This has helped to cap prices despite weather concerns, as sellers compete for limited spot and nearby business.

With inventories of the current crop still available, a modest further price softening after the April weather risk window could stimulate an uptick in exports. Buyers appear prepared to step in if offers decline, especially if new-crop conditions prove favourable and reduce the probability of a sharp rally later in the year. Conversely, any significant frost or disease-driven yield loss could quickly reverse the current soft tone and trigger renewed price strength.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Risk balance: Near-term price risk is two-sided: weather and disease in Malatya are bullish factors, while weak exports and adequate stocks are bearish in the short run.
• For buyers: Consider gradual coverage on price dips during April, focusing on key sizes and origins, while keeping some volume open until the frost risk window closes.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline; locking in volumes at current levels may be prudent if your orchards are more exposed to disease or potential frost, but avoid heavy discounting until crop damage (or the lack of it) becomes clearer.
• Quality focus: Given humidity-related disease pressures, buyers should pay extra attention to quality specs and supplier track records, especially for unsulphured and organic lots.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

Overall, the apricot market is set for a cautious, weather‑driven April: prices may edge lower on continued weak exports, but any significant frost or disease escalation in Malatya would quickly flip sentiment to the upside.