Pumpkin Seed Market Sees Quiet Trade Amid Post-Holiday Lull – Prices Hold Steady

The Chinese pumpkin seed market is currently characterized by subdued activity and lingering uncertainty following the Spring Festival. Although fundamental dynamics usually begin to shift as production hubs resume operations after the holiday, the 2026 season has started at a notably slow pace. Key producing areas such as Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia remain cautious, with factories either still on holiday or only partially resuming. Stock remains primarily in the hands of distributors rather than flowing actively through the processing and export chain. This dynamic, combined with soft post-holiday end-user demand and challenging inventory pressures, has created a climate where both buyers and sellers maintain a wait-and-see approach. On top of these fundamentals, price volatility is muted and transactional volume remains low. When viewed alongside current FOB offers for Chinese pumpkin seed kernels—backing up the impression of price stability and restrained sentiment—it becomes increasingly clear that the market awaits stronger demand signals or significant upward surprises in new export orders to change course.

📈 Prices

Product	Type / Grade	Origin	Location	Organic	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Pumpkin seed kernels	gws, grade a	China	Beijing	No	2.18	2.28	2026-02-26	Bearish
Pumpkin seed kernels	shine skin, grade aa	China	Beijing	Yes	3.33	3.31	2026-02-26	Stable
Pumpkin seed kernels	shine skin, grade aa	China	Beijing	No	3.18	3.16	2026-02-26	Stable

• Spot prices in Beijing for gws grade A fell from 2.28 to 2.18 EUR/kg (bearish due to limited trade and large stocks).
• Shine skin premiums for grade AA (organic and non-organic) demonstrate resilience, holding steady or with minor positive movement.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Post-Holiday Slowdown: Most factories in Xinjiang have not resumed, with Gansu traders focused on depleting inventory rather than new procurement.
• Distributors Holding Inventory: Surplus stocks remain with traders, as terminal demand at home and abroad returns slowly and remains below expectations.
• Minimal New Orders: Export activity is sporadic; contract execution is processed only as needed, with no signs of a surge in new bookings.
• Stable to Soft Domestic Trade: The domestic recovery is sluggish, and inventory drawdown is limited, acting as a headwind for prices and sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals

• Xinjiang: Factory operations largely paused, processing only for legacy orders.
• Gansu: Traders are digesting prior stock, showing little inclination to replenish.
• Inner Mongolia: Some recovery in processing, but limited to local immediate needs and scant external orders—no market-wide upward price action.
• Export and Domestic: Both channels face tepid demand; neither new export contracts nor robust internal market consumption are reported.

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Production Implications

• Early post-holiday reports indicate no immediate weather risks in primary Chinese pumpkin seed areas. However, as major production zones delay resumption, phenological development lags are unlikely to affect the coming crop just yet.
• Short-term weather remains benign; no adverse effects on stocks or the allocation of new supply are anticipated this week. Continued dry or cold conditions could limit processing further, but this is not currently a market-moving factor.

🌎 Global Position – Production & Stocks

• China remains the dominant global producer and exporter of pumpkin seed kernels. Stocks are primarily with distributors, indicating no pronounced supply shortages. Inventory digestion is central to price direction in the near term.
• Competitive pressure from alternative origins (e.g., Eastern Europe) is negligible at present, given subdued overall international demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 For Buyers: Ample inventory in China creates room for negotiation on spot deals. The risk of sharp upward price moves is low in the short term, but monitor for possible factory resumption signals or export demand shocks.
• 📌 For Sellers: Inventory holders may need to be flexible on price to generate liquidity. Holding strategy is reasonable only if able to sustain caution through the current lull.
• 📌 For Exporters: Focus on fulfilling incremental and customized orders; large, speculative bookings are not recommended until a clear trend emerges in post-holiday demand.
• 📌 Risk: The main risk factor is a sudden return of export demand, especially from the EU or the Middle East, which could absorb stocks faster than anticipated.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Grade/Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Outlook (3 days)
Beijing	GWS, Grade A	2.18	Stable to slightly weak
Beijing	Shine Skin, Grade AA (Organic)	3.33	Stable
Beijing	Shine Skin, Grade AA (Non-Organic)	3.18	Stable

• Expect flat pricing over the next three days barring a significant change in factory participation or export interest.