🌾 Rapeseed Futures Retreat Slightly – Weekly Trend Remains Flat Despite Canola Surge
Rapeseed Futures Retreat Slightly – Weekly Trend Remains Flat Despite Canola Surge
Despite strong Canadian canola gains, Euronext rapeseed slipped marginally on Friday, closing the week almost unchanged. Trade sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development
Rapeseed prices on the Euronext settled slightly lower on Friday. The August contract fell by €1 to €471.25/t, registering a weekly loss of just €0.50/t (–0.1%).
While the Paris market moved sideways, Canadian ICE Canola contracts rallied sharply, with the July contract climbing CAD 11.20 to 712.10, supported by tightening inventories and improved trade sentiment.
| Contract | Price (€/t) | Change (€/t) | Weekly Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 471.25 | –1.00 | –0.50 | ⬇️ |
| Nov 25 | 475.75 | 0.00 | –0.50 | ➡️ |
| Feb 26 | 478.25 | 0.00 | –0.75 | ➡️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Weaker Finish in Paris: Mild technical selling and end-of-week consolidation capped earlier gains.
- ICE Canola Rally: Canadian futures hit multi-month highs, driven by tight stock expectations and trade optimism.
- U.S.–China Trade Progress: Weekend reports indicate a joint economic dialogue was agreed upon in Geneva – positive for oilseed markets.
- Fund Positioning: Speculative long interest in rapeseed declined slightly, reducing upward momentum.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Despite the slight dip, rapeseed remains in a neutral to firm structure, supported by:
- Bullish momentum in ICE canola
- Ongoing optimism in the oilseed complex
- Limited downside in Euronext contracts near key technical supports
Strategy:
Buyers may consider positioning on price dips, especially ahead of further USDA data and with Canadian stocks tightening.
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract)
| Date | Expected Range (€/t) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 470–474 | ➡️ Stable |
| May 15 | 471–475 | ⬆️ Slight Upside |
| May 16 | 472–476 | ⬆️ Moderate |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
| Region | Trend | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| France | 🌤️ Mostly dry | Favourable for early development |
| Germany/Poland | 🌦️ Mixed | Intermittent showers expected |
| Ukraine | ☀️ Warm & dry | May accelerate crop progress |
| Canada (Prairies) | 🌤️ Mild & dry | Good seeding conditions for canola |