Rapeseed Edges Up Slightly – EU Forecasts Limit Gains

Rapeseed Edges Up Slightly – EU Forecasts Limit Gains

After a week of sideways movement, Euronext rapeseed closed marginally higher on Wednesday. The August 2025 contract gained €0.25 to €478.50/t, though broader price momentum remains muted due to improving EU crop forecasts.

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📊 Price Overview – as of Wednesday, June 4

Exchange	Contract	Price	Change
Euronext	Aug ’25	€478.50/t	▲ €0.25 (+0.05%)
ICE Canola	Jul ’25	695.00 CAD/t	▼ 3.70 CAD (–0.53%)

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🌍 Weather and Crop Outlook

• 🌧 EU Outlook: Rain forecast from northern France to the Baltic should ease spring drought concerns.
• 🇩🇪 Germany: Moisture deficits persist in the north, with soil water at critical levels.
• 🇨🇦 Canada: Canola planting is progressing well in dry soils, but farmers remain concerned about the lack of rain.

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💬 Market Commentary

📉 The rapeseed market traded narrowly as Chicago was closed for a public holiday.
🇪🇺 A temporary EU–US tariff truce did not immediately impact prices. The suspension of proposed 50% duties on EU oilseeds until July 9 removed a major uncertainty.
📈 Despite a slight uptick, favourable EU growing conditions and a stronger euro are weighing on momentum.
🇨🇦 On ICE, Canola futures slipped, pressured by competitiveness concerns versus Chicago soybeans.

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📌 Strategy & Outlook

🔍 Watch EU weather closely – forecasted rain could cap further gains.
📉 Bearish bias may persist if crop conditions improve further in northern Europe.
📆 Monitor US weather + USDA progress report due Tuesday after the Memorial Day delay.