📈 Rapeseed Gains Again as Old Crop Stays Firm – Soybean Market Waits for USDA Signals
📍 The European rapeseed market extended its rally, with the May contract rising for the seventh session in a row. While old crop demand remains firm, traders remain cautious ahead of key USDA data that could reshape planting expectations and supply outlooks.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (ct/bu) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,001.00 | €339 | -0.75 | -0.07% |
| July 2025 | 1,015.00 | €344 | -0.75 | -0.07% |
| Nov 2025 | 1,029.25 | €349 | -0.50 | -0.05% |
📈 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (EUR/t) | 📈 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 516.25 | +3.25 | +0.63% |
| Aug 2025 | 479.00 | +2.50 | +0.52% |
| Nov 2025 | 481.00 | +2.50 | +0.52% |
📈 ICECA – Canola Futures (Winnipeg)
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (CAD/t) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📈 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 588.90 | €382 | +10.70 | +1.82% |
| Jul 2025 | 594.90 | €386 | +6.90 | +1.16% |
| Nov 2025 | 595.60 | €387 | +5.10 | +0.86% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Factors
📌 Old Crop Rapeseed Leads the Rally
- The May contract rose again, supported by:
→ Tight old crop supplies
→ Firm demand from crushers
→ Weaker euro and stronger veg oil markets - Canola’s strength in Winnipeg also helped lift sentiment.
📉 Soybean Market in Wait-and-See Mode
- Traders are cautious ahead of the March 31 USDA reports, including:
→ Planting intentions, with estimates calling for reduced soybean acreage:- Reuters poll: 83.76 million acres, down from 87.05 million last year.
→ Quarterly stocks report – average trade estimate: 1.905 billion bushels. - Range: 1.823 – 2.016 billion bu
- Last year: 1.845 billion bu
- Reuters poll: 83.76 million acres, down from 87.05 million last year.
🚢 Brazil Exports Continue to Impress
- ANEC estimates March soybean exports at 14.8 MMT, far above February’s 9.6 MMT.
- Soymeal exports are also expected to rise: 2.05 MMT in March vs. 1.5 MMT in February.
🔄 Speculative Positioning on Euronext
- Non-commercial traders cut their net-long position in rapeseed futures from 20,495 to 12,975 contracts.
- Commercials reduced their net short from 30,766 to 19,788 contracts.
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
📍 Brazil:
→ Harvest 77% complete.
→ Drought in southern regions (especially Rio Grande do Sul) is reducing yield potential.
📍 Argentina:
→ Soil moisture remains low in key zones.
→ Crop stress remains a concern.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Old crop remains supported; new crop stable to weaker.
- Resistance: €520/t
- Support: €495/t
- Expected Range: €500 – €515/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Sideways ahead of USDA data.
- Resistance: 1,015 ct/bu
- Support: 985 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 995 – 1,010 ct/bu
📉 5. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans
| Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 🔻 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 |
🔍 6. Summary & Outlook
📈 Market Insights:
- Old-crop rapeseed remains well-supported, but new crops are struggling to find the upside.
- Soybeans face headwinds from rising Brazilian exports and uncertain U.S. planting.
- All eyes are now on USDA reports and geopolitical trade developments.
🔮 Next week could be pivotal – positioning ahead of March 31 will dominate short-term moves.