Rapeseed Gains on Uncertain EU Crop Outlook – ICE Canola Flat

Rapeseed Gains on Uncertain EU Crop Outlook – ICE Canola Flat

Rapeseed futures on Euronext advanced again on Thursday, supported by continued uncertainty around European harvest conditions. Meanwhile, ICE canola remained mostly flat amid smooth planting and calm weather in Canada.

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📊 Market Overview – Euronext & ICE

Contract	Exchange	Price	Daily Change	Trend
Aug 25	Euronext	€489.25/t	+€4.25	⬆️
Nov 25	ICE	685.80 CAD/t	–0.20 CAD	➡️
Jul 25	ICE	715.90 CAD/t	–0.10 CAD	➡️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Crop Uncertainty in Central & Northern EU
  Soil moisture levels remain inconsistent. French, German, and Polish crops face patchy development.
• Canada: Smooth Planting Keeps Activity Low
  Canola planting continues without major weather disruptions. Producers remain sidelined, awaiting price incentives.
• Biodiesel Scepticism in U.S. Pressures Soy Oil
  Traders await clearer biofuel policy signals. The lack of action weighs on oilseeds broadly but hasn’t derailed rapeseed’s rally.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook

The price trend remains upward, supported by weather risks and spread tightening. Volumes surged on Thursday, especially in the August contract.

Recommendations:
– Buyers: Consider partial cover above €485 with a €495 target
– Sellers: Protect offers around €492–495 until volatility fades
– Watch technicals: Next resistance at €490.75, then €495.00

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Euronext Aug 25)

Date	Expected Range (€/t)	Outlook
May 23	486–492	⬆️ Slightly firm
May 24	485–494	➡️ Weather-driven
May 25	484–496	⬆️ Uptrend intact

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Rapeseed Regions

Region	Trend	Notes
Germany	🌧️ Mild rain	Better moisture, easing stress
France	🌤️ Mixed	Localised dryness persists
Poland/Baltics	🌧️ Wet shift	Weekend rain expected across the Baltic rim
Ukraine	🌤️ Neutral	Good flowering conditions
Canada	🌤️ Excellent	2025 planting running ahead of schedule

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