📈 Rapeseed Gains While Soybeans Slip – Weather, Trade, and USDA Outlooks Shape Sentiment
📍 Rapeseed kicked off the week with modest gains, while soybean markets softened under the weight of export competition and a stronger U.S. dollar. Canola futures diverged, with old crops holding up but new crops slipping, as tariff discussions and weather forecasts add layers of uncertainty ahead of critical USDA reports.
📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (ct/bu) | 💶 EUR/t | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,007.25 | €342.70 | -2.50 | -0.25% |
| July 2025 | 1,021.50 | €347.00 | -1.75 | -0.17% |
| Nov 2025 | 1,035.25 | €352.50 | -1.00 | -0.10% |
📈 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (EUR/t) | 📈 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 499.50 | +5.50 | +1.11% |
| Aug 2025 | 473.75 | +1.25 | +0.26% |
| Nov 2025 | 476.75 | +1.75 | +0.37% |
📌 ICECA – Canola Futures (Winnipeg)
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (CAD/t) | 💶 EUR/t | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 572.20 | €370 | +0.50 | +0.09% |
| Jul 2025 | 582.40 | €376 | +0.60 | +0.10% |
| Nov 2025 | 583.70 | €377 | -2.90 | -0.50% |
🌍 2. Key Drivers & Market Insights
📌 Rapeseed Strength Led by Old Crop, But Outlook Remains Fragile
- Nearby Euronext rapeseed futures advanced further, supported by technical buying and a weaker euro.
- Gains in new crop contracts were limited by favourable European weather, as EU crop monitoring service MARS expects yields to rise 9% vs last year.
📌 U.S. Tariff Fears Keep Soy Markets Cautious
- U.S. traders are watching for potential 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the EU beginning April 2, which could trigger retaliatory moves.
- Export-sensitive commodities like soybeans are seen as particularly exposed.
📉 Canola Mixed as Traders React to Policy & Currency Moves
- Old crop futures firmed slightly in Winnipeg, but new crop contracts fell, reflecting broader uncertainty.
- A stronger Canadian dollar added pressure to ICE futures.
📉 Palm Oil Hits Multi-Week Lows on Weaker Veg Oil Market
- Malaysian futures fell for a second session, driven by sluggish exports and weaker soy oil prices.
- Benchmark June contract closed at 4,376 MYR/t (-4.4% w/w) or USD 990.27/t.
🌱 Brazil’s Harvest Progresses, But Forecast Cut
- AgRural lowered its production outlook to 165.9 MMT, citing drought in southern states.
- Harvest progress reached 77%, well ahead of last year’s 69%.
🚢 U.S. Soybean Exports Improve
- USDA inspection data showed 822,214 t shipped in the week ending March 20, +25% w/w and +4.7% y/y.
- China remained the top destination with 404,561 t, followed by Egypt and Mexico.
- Cumulative 2024/25 shipments reached 39.93 MMT, up 9.2% y/y.
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
🇧🇷 Brazil:
→ Soybean harvest continues at a rapid pace; yields are steady except in drought-hit southern states.
🇦🇷 Argentina:
→ Soil moisture remains a concern in parts of the northeast.
→ High temperatures and rainfall deficits may further reduce yield potential.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Stable to bullish near-term, though gains could stall if canola remains weak.
- Resistance: €505/t
- Support: €485/t
- Range: €490 – €500/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Cautious ahead of USDA reports and global policy risks.
- Resistance: 1,020 ct/bu
- Support: 995 ct/bu
- Range: 1,000 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans
| Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 |
🔍 6. Summary & Outlook
📈 Market Summary:
- Rapeseed continues to recover, but stronger supply outlooks in the EU and volatility in Canada could slow momentum.
- Soybeans remain pressured by favourable harvests and export uncertainty, though demand has improved short term.
- Traders are shifting focus to the USDA’s planting and stock reports due March 31.
🔮 Expect heightened volatility as trade policy developments and USDA projections come into focus.