Rapeseed Market Feels the Heat: Rising Soy, Sliding Palm, and Canola Surges

The rapeseed market is experiencing notable volatility, shaped by a dynamic interplay between global oilseeds, export expectations, and macro trends. Fresh highs in soybean prices at the CBOT, underpinned by robust Chinese demand, have provided an underlying lift to rapeseed. Soybean oil values in Chicago have soared 25% since January, boosting sentiment in related oilseed markets. Meanwhile, the Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed contracts continue to display a modest pullback from recent peaks, despite the general uptrend in vegetable oil markets. In Germany’s cash market, slight upticks in rapeseed prices indicate ongoing support, even as Malaysian palm oil trended lower amid currency headwinds and weak export data. The Canadian ICE Canola market has rallied recently, partly due to expectations that China will reduce import tariffs on Canadian canola in early March, prompting forward sales to the country. All these elements combine to keep rapeseed in the spotlight for traders seeking both opportunity and risk management strategies in a shifting global landscape.

📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot

Euronext (MATIF) Rapeseed Futures – 25.02.2026
Contract	Last	Change	High	Low	Volume	Open Interest	Sentiment
May 26	489.25 EUR/t	-2.00 (-0.41%)	491.25	488.75	10	90,903	Bearish
Aug 26	470.00 EUR/t	-2.50 (-0.53%)	472.25	470.00	7	30,378	Bearish
Nov 26	472.50 EUR/t	-2.25 (-0.47%)	473.50	472.25	3	16,032	Bearish

 

ICE Canada Canola Futures – 24.02.2026
Contract	Last (CAD/t)	Change	High	Low	Volume
Mar 26	680.20	+3.30 (+0.49%)	680.40	674.40	12,611
May 26	691.60	+2.60 (+0.38%)	692.00	686.30	39,090
Jul 26	701.80	+2.20 (+0.31%)	702.40	697.00	14,851

 

Spot & Physical Market – Offers (EUR/kg)
Origin	Location	Delivery	Price	Details
France	Paris	FOB	0.55	Offer
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.59	Offer
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.61	Offer

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Soybean rally: Prices at CBOT climbed to multi-month highs on steady Chinese imports; China’s New Year holidays paused new confirmed US sales, but optimism persists for post-holiday demand.
• Vegetable oil interplay: Rapeseed draws support from soaring Chicago soybean oil, up 25% since January; this underpins rapeseed’s relative strength despite modest MATIF losses.
• Canola optimism: Canadian ICE Canola gained on firm Chinese demand forecasts and looming import tariff reductions on canola from March.
• Palm oil pressure: Malaysian palm oil futures dropped for a third consecutive session, with weak export data, a stronger ringgit, and lower crude oil weighing on sentiment.
• Physical premiums: German cash values edged higher recently, reflecting tight regional spot supply against persistent crush and export demand.

📊 Fundamentals and Market Influences

• USDA and trade flows: Latest USDA data confirmed stable soybean flows to China. Brazilian exports for February are forecast at 11.69 million tonnes (ANEC), up from prior forecasts and well above last year.
• Policy outlook: Chinese court decisions are not expected to diminish US or global oilseed demand for now; market is focused on trade rules and tariff shifts, particularly for canola.
• Rapeseed and oil linkage: Vegetable oil price trends remain the dominant driver for rapeseed, underlining cross-commodity risks and opportunities. Soybean and palm oil moves can trigger rapid shifts for rapeseed.
• Speculative activity: Open interest on Euronext contracts remains robust, suggesting ongoing trade participation but cautious sentiment after recent highs.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Northern Europe: Generally mild and wet weather has supported good overwintering of rapeseed crops in key EU regions (France, Germany, Poland), though waterlogging in localized areas may raise disease risks.
• Canada: Western Prairies remain seasonally cold with snow cover protecting canola, while early planting intentions watch for spring moisture deficits.
• Black Sea: Ukraine and southern Russia report above-average soil moisture; no major threats to spring rapeseed outlook at present.

🌍 Global Production & Stock Position

• EU: Remains the leading producer and consumer of rapeseed; recent improvements in crop conditions boost output potential for 2026 harvest, though final acreage and yields are weather-dependent.
• Canada: Key exporter; outlook buoyed by China trade normalization, but watch for spring weather and export program pace.
• Ukraine: Major exporter; strong forward sales, especially to the EU. Stable logistics and grain corridor functionality remain critical.
• Major importers/consumers: EU and China remain the markets to watch, with India also active depending on edible oil spreads.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor cross-commodity moves: Watch soy and palm oil for triggers in rapeseed futures direction.
• Spring weather: EU crop prospects hinge on March/April rainfall and warmth; new-crop hedges suggested for producers with price recovery near 485–495 EUR/t (MATIF May 26).
• Canadian canola: Trade news and tariff announcements in March will guide price risk; sellers may use up-days to lock in forward sales.
• Physical buyers: Secure spot supplies as cash premiums persist, especially in Germany and northern France.
• Speculators: Cautious, as Euronext price pauses signal near-term consolidation; upside potential dependent on soy/palm oil and weather shocks.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Rapeseed)

Date	Euronext May 26 (EUR/t)	ICE Mar 26 (CAD/t)	Market Mood
Feb 26	488–491	678–682	Soft consolidation
Feb 27	487–492	679–684	Sideways/slight up
Feb 28	489–495	682–688	Weather/soy trend driven