Rapeseed Market Stabilises, Soybean Outlook Clouded by Trade Tensions

🌱 Rapeseed Market Stabilises, Soybean Outlook Clouded by Trade Tensions

After recent volatility, rapeseed futures in Paris found some footing, supported by technical buying, while uncertainty over U.S.–China trade tensions continues to weigh on oilseeds globally.

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📊 Market Overview – Monday, April 28, 2025

📍 Euronext Rapeseed Futures (MATIF)

Contract	Price (€/t)	Change (€/t)	Trend
May 25	542.00	0.00	➡️
Aug 25	476.50	+6.00	⬆️
Nov 25	479.75	+6.50	⬆️

📍 ICE Canola Futures (CAD/t)

Contract	Price (CAD/t)	Change (CAD)	Trend
May 25	694.80	-2.50	⬇️
Jul 25	696.40	-5.40	⬇️
Nov 25	660.90	+0.50	➡️

📍 CBOT Soybeans (July 25)

Price (ct/bu)	EUR/t (approx)	Change
1,059.25	~342.50 EUR/t	-2.75

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

🇪🇺 Euronext Rapeseed: Technical Rebound Amid Volatility

• Rapeseed prices in Paris stabilised on Monday after last week’s losses.
• The August contract recovered by €6 to €476.50/t.
• Technical buying boosted the expiring May futures.
• The front-month May contract expires on Wednesday.

🇨🇦 ICE Canola: Waiting for Canadian Elections

• Canola futures held mostly steady at Friday’s elevated levels.
• Market participants watched Canadian election results for possible impacts on agricultural trade.
• Prime Minister Carney’s Liberal Party reportedly secured re-election, calming market fears.

🇺🇸 CBOT Soybeans: Mixed Signals Amid Trade War

• Soybeans rebounded after hitting multi-month lows.
• Weather delays in U.S. planting provided support.
• USDA’s Crop Progress Report showed that 18% of soybeans were planted, ahead of expectations (17%) and the 5-year average (12%).
• Export inspections (week to April 24): 439,341t (–21% w/w, +59% y/y), China was the top buyer despite tariffs.

🇲🇾 Malaysian Palm Oil: Mild Recovery Fails to Reverse Downtrend

• Palm oil futures fell for the sixth consecutive session on Monday but showed slight recovery Tuesday morning.
• Bearish factors included a stronger ringgit and expectations of rising Southeast Asian production.

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📈 Strategie Grains EU Oilseed Forecast Update

Crop	2025/26 Forecast (Mio t)	Monthly Change	Y/y Change
Rapeseed	19.0	unchanged	+13%
Sunflower seeds	10.5	–0.1	+26%
Soybeans	3.1	–0.1	+3%

• EU rapeseed harvest expected to remain strong.
• Small downward revisions for sunflowers and soybeans.