Rapeseed Prices Continue to Rise – Strong Canola and Tight Supply Push Futures Higher
Rapeseed prices at the Euronext climbed for the third consecutive session on Tuesday. Rising ICE canola prices and tightening supply expectations supported the oilseed market.
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📊 Market Situation & Price Development
The August 2025 contract on the Euronext rose by €3.50 to €488.50/t, supported by gains in ICE canola futures and continued buying in the physical market.
| Contract | Price (€/t) | Daily Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 488.50 | +3.50 | ⬆️ |
| Nov 25 | 492.25 | +3.50* | ⬆️ |
| Feb 26 | 494.50 | +3.50* | ⬆️ |
*Estimated based on curve stability.
At ICE Futures Canada:
- Jul 25 Canola jumped +15.60 CAD to 718.30 CAD/t
- Nov 25 Canola gained +7.30 CAD to 681.00 CAD/t
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Tight Canola Supply Expected
Concerns about lower Canadian acreage and an uncertain demand outlook drove canola futures higher across all terms. - Fast Seeding Progress in Alberta
According to provincial data, 47% of canola planting was completed by May 13, well ahead of the 5-year average of 26%. - Supportive Physical Market
German prices for new crop rapeseed are nearing €500/t FCA oil mill, boosting bullish sentiment. - Vegetable Oil Recovery
Soy oil rebounded, supporting rapeseed’s oil value amid an ongoing reset in the global biodiesel narrative.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Rapeseed remains well supported with strong gains in ICE canola and physical strength in Europe. Watch for profit-taking above €490.
Strategy:
– Buy on dips near €485
– Watch canola spreads and biodiesel headlines for confirmation
– Sellers: Secure sales above €495 ahead of the EU harvest risk window
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract)
| Date | Expected Range (€/t) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 22 | 487–492 | ⬆️ Bullish Bias |
| May 23 | 485–490 | ➡️ Technical Zone |
| May 24 | 483–488 | ➡️ Sideways |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Rapeseed Regions
| Region | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| France | ☀️ Persistently dry | Increasing stress during flowering |
| Germany/Poland | 🌤️ Dry & stable | Soil moisture is low, and some relief is forecast next week |
| Ukraine | 🌧️ Spotty rain | Topsoil improvement may stabilise the yield outlook |
| Canada (Canola) | 🌤️ Ideal start |
Related posts:
Rapeseed Ends Week Strong – Dry Weather in Europe Supports Market
Rapeseed Market Outlook: Tight Supply, Weather Risks, and Price Volatility Define 2025
Rapeseed Retreats After Rally – Profit-Taking Caps Gains
Rapeseed Extends Rally – Market Climbs to Highest Since March
Rapeseed Futures Surge to 6-Week High – Euro Weakness and Soy Rally Provide Lift
Rapeseed Eases Slightly – Weekly Loss Limited Despite Canola Rally
Rapeseed Market Dynamics: Price Pressures and Global Trade Shifts