Rapeseed Retreats After 3-Day Rally – Baltic Rain Relieves Supply Fears
After three days of steady gains, rapeseed futures on Euronext edged lower on Wednesday. Forecasted rainfall in Northern and Eastern Europe reduced crop stress concerns, while ICE canola spreads continue to tighten.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Rape seeds
42% min oil
98%
FCA 0.49 €/kg
(from UA)
Get Your Delivery Cost
Rape seeds
42% min oil
98%
FCA 0.51 €/kg
(from UA)
Get Your Delivery Cost
📊 Market Overview – Euronext & ICE
| Contract | Exchange | Price | Daily Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | Euronext | €485.00/t | –€3.50 | ⬇️ |
| Nov 25 | ICE | 686.00 CAD/t | +5.00 CAD | ⬆️ |
| Jul 25 | ICE | 716.00 CAD/t | –2.30 CAD | ⬇️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Rain Relieves Baltic Stress:
Forecasted rain for Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states eases drought fears. - Canada: Sowing Active, Selling Passive:
Canadian farmers focus on planting. Physical availability from farms remains low despite rising new crop prices. - Speculators Increase Long Exposure:
Euronext data shows non-commercial net long positions rose from 18,483 to 26,859 contracts as of May 16.
💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook
Technical support near €482/t remains valid. Traders now assess weather resilience and spread action in canola.
Recommendations:
– Avoid new longs below €482
– Monitor spread between Jul/Nov ICE for harvest signals
– Sellers should consider defending €490+ offers for new crop
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Euronext Aug 25)
| Date | Expected Range (€/t) | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| May 22 | 481–487 | ➡️ Neutral |
| May 23 | 480–488 | ➡️ Weather-bound |
| May 24 | 482–490 | ⬆️ Slight rebound |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Rapeseed Regions
| Region | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Germany/Poland | 🌧️ Moistening | Forecasted rainfall helps topsoil moisture |
| France | ☀️ Dry | Persistent dryness in northern zones |
| Ukraine | 🌤️ Improving | Spotty showers support pod formation |
| Canada | 🌤️ Optimal |