Record Surge in India Soybean Exports Reshapes Global Soya Market Dynamics

The global soya market is experiencing major shifts as India’s soybean export volumes more than double year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2025. The surge—amounting to a colossal 105% cumulative growth—has not only set record numbers for Indian shipments but is also reshaping the equilibrium for global soya supply chains. Backed by enhanced domestic yields, logistical improvements, and robust demand from key importing countries, India’s competitive pricing is impacting trade flows traditionally dominated by the Americas. Meanwhile, market prices across origins have remained firm, with a notable uptick on Chinese and Indian FOB contracts, underlining a renewed sense of bullishness among producers.

The US market, while stable, is beginning to feel the ripple effects of this redrawn global demand, particularly against a backdrop of erratic weather across the Americas and the Black Sea region. Speculators and end-users alike are closely monitoring upcoming crop reports and weather data, as increased Indian output blends into a complex tapestry of global stocks, currency volatility, and policy winds. Below, we break down the intricate interplay of prices, fundamentals, and forecasts driving today’s soya market.

📈 Soya Prices at a Glance

Origin	Type	Organic	Purity	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update Date	Sentiment
CN	Yellow, organic	Yes	99.8%	Beijing	0.79	0.78	2025-11-26	🔼 Bullish
CN	Yellow	No	99.5%	Beijing	0.70	0.69	2025-11-26	🔼 Bullish
US	No. 2	No	–	Washington D.C.	0.42	0.40	2025-11-22	⬆️ Stable/Bullish
IN	Sortex clean	No	–	New Delhi	0.80	0.78	2025-11-22	🔼 Bullish
UA	–	No	–	Odesa	0.34	0.34	2025-11-22	⏸️ Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Fundamentals

• India’s Export Boom: Jan–Sep 2025 soya exports from India reached 9,557,123 MT, up 105% over the same period in 2024. Each month saw significant YoY % growth, peaking in March (802%) and remaining robust throughout the offseason.
• Global Stock Movement: Strong Indian shipments are rebalancing international stock positions, especially in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. US and South American exporters are seeing more competition but continue to hold leadership in volume.
• US Market: Stable to firm prices, with recent marginal upticks as foreign demand partly offsets soft domestic crushing margins.
• China: Price rises for both conventional and organic soybeans on FOB Beijing, reflecting sustained domestic demand and reduced imports from other origins except India.
• Ukraine: FOB Odesa prices remain flat; shipping concerns and logistical constraints maintain a lid on price movement.

📊 Market Drivers & Speculative Flows

• USDA & Acreage Reports: Latest global outlooks show larger-than-expected inventories due to India’s bumper crop; however, USDA’s recent reports indicate downward revisions for US ending stocks due to weather disruptions.
• Fund Positioning: Money managers are increasing bullish bets on Indian and Chinese contracts, while maintaining neutral to modestly long positions in US markets.
• Policy Moves: No major export restrictions or subsidies from major exporters at this time, but heightened monitoring in India due to surging demand and prices.

☀️ Weather & Regional Yield Outlook

• India: Rabi (winter) soya crops benefited from well-timed monsoon withdrawal and scattered late rains, raising yield expectations for Q4 2025.
• US Midwest: Weather has turned drier than average with moderate heat; some regions risk yield reductions, though no widespread disaster reported yet.
• South America: Brazil’s north faces excess rain delays; Argentina enjoys stable conditions but watches for late-spring storms.
• Ukraine/Black Sea: Cool/wet start to autumn has improved soil moisture, but export pace is hindered by war-related disruptions.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Estimated 2024/25 Production (MT)	Key Trend
India	~14.5 million	Record exports, acreage expansion
USA	~112 million	Stable, weather watch
Brazil	~154 million	Potential delays, large crop
Argentina	~48 million	Recovery year after drought
Ukraine	4 million	Export flow uncertainty

📆 Trading Outlook & Key Insights

• Indian soya buyers & traders: Lock in contracts to capitalize on strong supply and competitive prices; monitor for domestic policy shifts.
• Importers in Asia & MENA: Prioritize Indian and Brazilian origins for near-term coverage, but hedge against possible weather disruptions.
• US/EU crushers: Watch global spreads—Indian supply may reduce basis risk but US yield concerns could reignite local prices.
• Speculators: Stay nimble; monitor weather in US & South America and any hint of policy response out of India or China.
• For all participants: Consider calendar spreads as volatility will likely increase during Q4 harvesting and import program negotiations.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• China FOB (Beijing): Stable to slightly firmer; expected range 0.79–0.81 EUR/kg
• India FOB (New Delhi): Bullish momentum persists; 0.80–0.83 EUR/kg
• US FOB (Washington D.C.): Consolidation likely; 0.42–0.45 EUR/kg
• Ukraine FOB (Odesa): Neutral; 0.33–0.35 EUR/kg barring logistical escalation