Soft Demand Pressures Figs as Buyers Stick to Hand-to-Mouth Coverage

Weak demand is keeping the figs market soft in early June, with buyers across key consuming centres purchasing only against immediate needs. Unless fresh demand emerges, prices are likely to remain under pressure and driven more by consumption patterns than by supply shocks. The current market is characterised by selective buying and an absence of stock-building. In New Delhi, figs (anjeer) have declined as both wholesale and retail demand weakened, especially at higher price levels. At the same time, export offers for Turkish dried figs out of Malatya are broadly steady, suggesting that the soft tone is demand-led rather than reflecting any new supply squeeze. With global dried fig output expected to increase in 2025/26 and import demand in major destinations relatively stable, near‑term price risks look skewed slightly to the downside.

Prices

In the New Delhi market, anjeer prices have eased as buyers resist higher levels and restrict purchases to immediate requirements, adding persistent downside pressure. The weakness is mirrored in related dried fruit lines such as magaz tarbooz and gola, reinforcing the picture of broad consumer caution rather than a figs‑specific issue.

Export quotations for Turkish dried figs (FOB Malatya) are currently stable in EUR terms across main sizes. Recent indicative levels cluster around EUR 7.6–9.6/kg for natural and Lerida types depending on size and quality, with no significant changes over the last three weekly updates, which confirms a sideways pattern rather than a renewed rally.

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, traders in New Delhi report that both wholesale and retail buyers are only purchasing figs to cover short‑term needs. Higher retail price points have slowed offtake, particularly for premium grades, and there is little appetite for forward coverage. This hand‑to‑mouth approach has also softened demand for comparable dried fruit items, highlighting general consumer resistance in the category rather than a local surplus of figs alone.

Globally, Turkey remains the key supplier, accounting for the majority of dried fig exports. Recent trade statistics show robust Turkish shipments of dates and figs to markets such as the UK, UAE, Malaysia and Spain, underlining that external demand remains present but not markedly accelerating. Combined with the soft tone in South Asian spot markets, the overall balance points to adequate supply facing only moderate consumption growth.

Fundamentals & Weather

Industry projections for 2025/26 indicate an increase in global dried fig production, with world output seen rising to around 156,000 tonnes, led by a larger Turkish crop and gains in Afghanistan, while Iran is expected slightly lower. Ending stocks are also forecast higher year‑on‑year, signalling more comfortable availability into the next marketing year and limiting the scope for sustained price spikes absent a major demand shock.

Weather conditions in Turkey’s core fig regions have recently been seasonally normal, with no fresh reports of widespread frost or drought damage in early June. Combined with existing stock levels, this suggests that supply‑side risks in the near term are moderate. For India, current market softness appears almost entirely demand‑driven, with no local weather‑related supply squeeze reported for imported dried figs.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Bias remains mildly bearish to sideways. With Indian spot demand weak and Turkish FOB offers steady, further downside is possible if consumer offtake does not improve.
• Medium term (through Q3 2026): Any seasonal demand uptick or festival‑related buying could stabilise prices from current levels, but the expected larger 2025/26 global crop and higher projected ending stocks should cap rallies.
• Strategy – importers and wholesalers: Maintain a cautious, staggered buying approach, favouring hand‑to‑mouth coverage similar to end‑user behaviour. Consider adding volume only on dips or if clear signs of renewed retail demand emerge.
• Strategy – exporters and processors: Focus on competitive pricing and quality differentiation rather than volume pushes. With buyers highly price‑sensitive, flexible packing and credit terms may be more effective than attempts to raise offers.

3‑Day Directional Outlook

• New Delhi spot figs (anjeer): Slightly weaker to steady; further minor declines possible if buyer interest remains muted.
• Turkish dried figs FOB Malatya (EUR basis): Largely steady across grades, with a soft tone but limited immediate downside as exporters balance stocks and new‑crop expectations.
• Key import markets (EU, Middle East): Stable prices in EUR, with any moves likely confined to narrow ranges pending clearer demand signals from retailers and food industry buyers.