Soybean Market Surges: CBOT Rallies, Argentinian Weather Boosts Meal – Demand in Focus

The soybean market has witnessed a notable upswing over recent sessions, driven by a confluence of robust fundamental and external factors. At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), soybeans climbed for a third consecutive day, reaching three-month highs, underpinned by strong gains in soybean meal and a solid performance in the US market. The current rally is rooted in both tightening supply conditions and robust speculative activity. On one hand, persistent heat and dryness in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, have heightened yield concerns and propelled global meal prices higher. On the other, expectations of rekindled post-holiday buying from China – the globe’s top soybean importer – have intensified after the Chinese Lunar New Year, adding further upside.

Domestic regulatory shifts are another catalyst: the US EPA is poised to increase biodiesel blending mandates, potentially fueling a significant demand surge for soybean oil, and pushing US prices to new contract highs. Though palm oil in Malaysia softened and exerted some downward pressure, soybean market momentum held firm, especially as investors anticipate the USDA’s imminent weekly export sales report. Forecasts suggest strong US soybean and meal exports, although oil sales may ease slightly. This optimism, coupled with profit-taking among European rapeseed traders and increased speculative interest, has made the current price zone attractive for marketers seeking to finalize the sale of remaining old-crop stocks. With open interest and trading volumes robust across contracts, the complex remains tightly wound around demand developments and South American weather uncertainties.

📈 Prices & Contract Overview

Exchange	Product	Latest Price	Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Soybeans (Mar 2026)	1150.50 US-Cent/bu	+2.75 (+0.24%)	Positive, 3rd consecutive gain
CBOT	Soybean Oil (May 2026)	61.90 US-Cent/lb	+0.14 (+0.23%)	Multi-month highs, firm
CBOT	Soybean Meal (May 2026)	321.60 USD/Short ton	+0.70 (+0.22%)	Strong, Argentina supply risk
DCE	Soybeans No.1 (May 2026)	4692 CNY/t	+18 (+0.38%)	Stable, Chinese demand in focus

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• CBOT soybeans rallied for three days amid strong meal prices and supply concerns from Argentina due to drought and heat.
• Speculation intensifies around post-Lunar New Year Chinese buying; traders expect China to revert as a strong buyer.
• US EPA’s upcoming policy on biodiesel blending is poised to boost soybean oil demand in the US fuel sector, driving oil prices to recent highs.
• USDA export sales (expected today):
  • Soybeans: 0.4–1.0 million tonnes forecast
  • Soybean meal: 250,000–500,000 tonnes forecast
  • Soybean oil: 10,000–16,000 tonne decline forecast
• European rapeseed prices dropped due to increased old-crop selling and speculative profit-taking, although underlying trend remains cautious with US soybean strength.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Argentina’s drought is a key risk for global meal supply, supporting US soybean and meal prices.
• Speculator positioning: Euronext rapeseed net long positions rose sharply, suggesting broader oilseed market bullishness. US open interest and volumes remain strong across major contracts.
• Biodiesel story: Policy-driven expectations for greater biodiesel blending in the US expect to power future oilseed crush and oil demand.
• Palm oil: 4th straight decline in Malaysia provided limited drag on overall oilseed complex.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Argentina: Heat and dryness continue to stress crops. Production estimates are at risk, especially for soy meal exports.
• Brazil: Harvest is progressing, weather is stable to slightly dry. No immediate large disruptions reported.
• US Midwest: Soil moisture remains adequate as planting season approaches; outlook supportive for new crop if trends hold.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Role	Status
Argentina	Largest soybean meal exporter	Production at risk from drought
USA	Top soybean and oil producer/exporter	Rising crush, strong domestic demand
Brazil	Top soybean producer/exporter	Harvest underway, watching demand trends
China	Largest importer	Demand recovery expected post-New Year
EU	Significant meal/oil importer	Rapeseed market volatile, responsive to US moves

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Use current rally to price/hedge old-crop soybeans; outlook remains firm but weather volatility is high.
• Exporters: Monitor US and Argentina logistics, especially as Argentine meal supplies could tighten further.
• Speculators: Volatility likely as weather and demand reports hit markets – prudent risk management advised.
• Buyers: Near-term dips could be opportunities, especially if Chinese demand recovery materializes slower than expected.
• Watch key reports: USDA weekly export sales, EPA biodiesel blending announcement (potential price catalysts).

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Product	Region	Forecast Direction	Driver
CBOT	Soybeans	USA	⬆️ Slightly higher / stable	USDA export data, Argentina weather
DCE	Soybeans No.1	China	⬆️ Stable to higher	Potential post-holiday demand surge
Euronext	Rapeseed (proxy)	EU	⤵️ Mildly softer	Profit-taking, export competition