🌱 Soybean Prices Rebound on Trade Optimism – Eyes Now on WASDE
Soybean Prices Rebound on Trade Optimism – Eyes Now on WASDE
Soybeans ended last week slightly lower, but positive U.S.–China trade headlines and new export sales triggered a fresh rally as the market turns to Monday’s WASDE release.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development
The July soybean contract on the CBOT closed Friday at 1,051.75 ct/bu, up 6.75 ct on the day but down 6.25 ct (–0.6%) over the week.
Futures opened strongly on Monday, with July gaining 13 ct to 1,064.75 ct/bu (~348 EUR/t) in early trade. Broad-based buying followed news of progress in U.S.–China trade talks and anticipation of updated USDA projections.
| Contract | Price (ct/bu) | EUR/t (approx) | Change | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25 | 1,051.75 | ~344 EUR/t | +6.75 | –6.25 |
| May 25 | 1,046.00 | ~341 EUR/t | +2.00 | – |
| Nov 25 | 1,045.75 | ~342 EUR/t | +15.25 | – |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- U.S.–China Trade Breakthrough
Negotiations in Switzerland ended with a joint statement:
– The U.S. pledged to reduce the trade deficit
– China agreed to a new economic dialogue platform - Export Support
USDA confirmed a private sale of 225,000 t of soybeans to Pakistan for 2025/26. - Speculative Pressure
CFTC data showed a sharp reduction in net-long soybean positions:
– Down by 16,332 contracts to 21,870
– Soymeal net-shorts hit a record 103,457 contracts - Brazil/Argentina Outlook
– Brazil’s April exports: 15.27 Mio t (+4% m/m & y/y)
– May forecast: 12.6 Mio t (↓900,000 t vs April)
– 2024/25 output estimates:
• Brazil: 169.17 Mio t (+0.17)
• Argentina: 49.25 Mio t
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
The outlook is cautiously bullish as the market awaits the WASDE report. Fundamentals suggest:
- Strong U.S. export program
- Tight positioning by funds
- Positive macro environment post-trade news
Strategy:
Short-term buying opportunities may arise ahead of the WASDE release. Monitor volatility and fund flow closely.
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract)
| Date | Expected Range (ct/bu) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 1,055–1,065 | ⬆️ Moderate |
| May 15 | 1,050–1,068 | ⬆️ Volatile |
| May 16 | 1,048–1,062 | ➡️ Sideways |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Soybean Regions
| Region | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Midwest | 🌤️ Dry & mild | Excellent planting weather – rapid progress |
| Mato Grosso (BR) | 🌦️ Scattered rain | Ideal for final harvest stages |
| Argentina | ☀️ Dry, stable | Supports late-season transport and logistics |
| China (Northeast) | 🌧️ Cooler, wet | May delay early-season planting |