Soybeans End Week Flat – Biofuel Policy Still Unclear, China Hopes Remain

Soybeans End Week Flat – Biofuel Policy Still Unclear, China Hopes Remain

Soybeans End Week Flat – Biofuel Policy Still Unclear, China Hopes Remain

Soybeans closed the week with marginal losses, caught between collapsing vegetable oil markets and renewed optimism over a potential trade agreement with China.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

On Friday, the July 2025 soybean contract at the CBOT fell by 1.25 ct to 1,050.00 ct/bu (~346 EUR/t). This left a weekly loss of just 1.75 ct or –0.2%, following a volatile week driven by sharp drops in soyoil.

Contract	Price (ct/bu)	Weekly Change	EUR/t (approx)	Trend
Jul 25	1,050.00	–1.75 (–0.2%)	~346 EUR/t	➡️
Aug 25	1,046.25	–1.00	~345 EUR/t	➡️
Nov 25	1,035.50	0.00	~342 EUR/t	➡️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Soy Oil Pressure Continues
  Soyoil futures extended losses Friday due to ongoing uncertainty over the EPA’s biodiesel blending targets. Market sentiment remains fragile.
• China Trade Hopes
  Optimism about a potential agreement between the U.S. and China helped soybeans stabilise. Traders anticipate improved U.S. export activity in late summer.
• Speculators Increase Net Longs
  CFTC data showed that managed money increased net-long positions by 16,537 contracts, bringing the total to 38,407 – the highest level in over two months.
• US/Canada Market Divergence
  While the U.S. market paused, Canadian canola advanced strongly – indicating relative strength in North American oilseeds beyond soyoil volatility.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

The market is caught between weak soyoil prices and stable soybean export demand expectations.

Strategy:
– Stay neutral-to-bullish as long as prices hold above 1,045 ct
– Monitor EPA decision and U.S.–China trade headlines
– Use dips to enter long positions if soyoil stabilises

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract)

Date	Expected Range (ct/bu)	Forecast
May 20	1,045–1,055	➡️ Sideways
May 21	1,044–1,058	⬆️ Rebound Risk
May 22	1,050–1,062	⬆️ Bullish Bias

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Soybean Regions

Region	Trend	Notes
U.S. Midwest	🌤️ Dry & mild	Excellent planting conditions, well above average
Brazil	🌧️ Scattered rain	Harvest complete; logistics remain steady
Argentina	☀️ Stable	No issues; Rosario raised yield outlook
China (NE)	🌦️ Patchy rain	No major delays, but slightly behind average pace

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