Soybeans Hold Gains Despite Soy Oil Slump – Export Sales Beat Expectations

Soybeans Hold Gains Despite Soy Oil Slump – Export Sales Beat Expectations

Soybean futures at the CBOT edged higher on Thursday. A steep drop in soy oil prices was offset by strong weekly export sales and technical buying ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend. Market participants remain cautious amid unclear biodiesel policy and weather-related harvest delays in Argentina.

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📊 Market Overview – CBOT Soy Complex

Product	Contract	Price	Daily Change	Trend
Soybeans	Jul 25	1,067.50 ct/bu	+4.75 ct	⬆️
Soymeal	Jul 25	296.20 USD/ton	–2.30 USD	⬇️
Soy Oil	Jul 25	49.11 US¢/lb	–1.42¢	⬇️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Strong Weekly Export Sales (USDA)
  – Old crop soybeans: 307,939 t (above expectations)
  – Soymeal: 382,652 t (well within forecast range)
  – Soy oil: 13,660 t (mid-range of estimates)
• Argentina: Harvest Delays Continue
  Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its crop forecast at 50 million tons, but warned that prolonged rainfall may lead to significant production losses.
• Biodiesel Uncertainty Pressures Soy Oil
  Lack of EPA clarity regarding blending mandates continues to weigh on soy oil, adding bearish momentum to the oil complex.
• Technical Positioning Before U.S. Holiday
  Traders adjusted positions ahead of Memorial Day. CBOT will be closed Monday, May 27.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook

Soybeans are holding firm near the 1,065–1,070 ct range. Meal weakness and soy oil volatility could limit gains, but export support remains a buffer.

Recommendations:
– Maintain long exposure with stops below 1,060 ct
– Consider short oil hedges against long beans
– Traders should monitor Tuesday’s delayed USDA planting report

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (CBOT Jul 25)

Date	Expected Range (ct/bu)	Outlook
May 23	1,063–1,072	⬆️ Slight bias up
May 24	1,062–1,075	➡️ Sideways
May 25	1,060–1,077	⬆️ Strong export support

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – U.S. & South America

Region	Trend	Notes
U.S. Midwest	🌧️ Continued rain	Some delays, but no major concern yet
Argentina	🌧️ Wet & slow	Risk of field loss and quality downgrades
Brazil	🌤️ Post-harvest	Normal logistics, no disruptions
China (NE)	🌤️ Normal	No planting stress observed

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