Soybeans Market: Sentiment Shifts Amid Export Surge, Tariff Drama & Investment Spike

The global soybeans market entered the week on a note of heightened volatility, with significant developments impacting pricing and sentiment. On Friday, oilseed markets generally closed weaker as some traders opted for profit-taking following earlier advances, while robust crude oil prices offered partial support—Brent crude finished the week up 5.9% at $71.76 per barrel, marking an eight-month high. Mounting geopolitical tensions, especially involving the US and Iran, raised fears of potential supply disruptions, adding a risk premium to the energy and oilseed markets. Domestically in the US, a landmark decision by the US Supreme Court ruled recent Trump-era tariffs as illegally imposed, interpreted as bearish for US soybeans due to the prospect of weakened US negotiating leverage with China.

This could rechannel Chinese soy demand toward Brazilian origins. President Trump’s prompt response—new, but temporary, tariffs—further amplified uncertainty. Meanwhile, Canada’s canola market rallied, buoyed by speculation that China may shift imports from US soybeans to Canadian canola, especially with new access agreements discussed for March. Palm oil futures, conversely, faced mild setbacks tied to weak soy oil and fears of overproduction. USDA export data for the week showed strong soybean and meal sales, primarily led by Chinese purchases, while speculative funds at the CBOT ramped up their net-long positions to their highest in months. Altogether, the soybean complex stands at a crossroads where policy risk, regional trade flows, and speculative positioning hold the keys to near-term direction.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Contract	CBOT Soybeans (¢/bu)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mar 26	1130.25 US¢	-7.25 (-0.64%)	Bearish
May 26	1146.00 US¢	-7.25 (-0.63%)	Bearish
Jul 26	1158.50 US¢	-7.50 (-0.64%)	Bearish
Sep 26	1115.25 US¢	-4.50 (-0.40%)	Bearish
Nov 26	1111.75 US¢	-3.25 (-0.29%)	Bearish

 

Contract	DCE Soybeans (CNY/t)	Weekly Change
Mar 26	4564	+55 (+1.21%)
May 26	4657	+81 (+1.74%)
Jul 26	4671	+75 (+1.61%)

 

Origin	Product Type	Price (EUR/kg)	WO Change (%)
US	No.2, FOB	0.52	0
CN	Yellow, organic, FOB	0.77	+1.3
CN	Yellow, FOB	0.69	+1.47

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Supreme Court Ruling: Declared Trump tariffs illegal, softening US leverages in talks with China—potentially bearish US soybeans, as Chinese demand may shift to Brazil.
• US Response: Trump imposed new, temporary (150-day) tariffs, keeping trade uncertainty high.
• Canadian Canola: ICE canola prices rallied (+1.7% weekly), as China-Canada import restrictions are set to ease—possible substitution of imports away from US soybeans.
• Palm Oil: Malaysian futures fell, pressured by weak soyoil and overproduction fears, despite a weekly rise of 1%.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• USDA Exports: US soybean net sales for the latest week hit 798,200 tons (current year) and 66,000 tons (next year)—firmly within analyst expectations and well above last year (+66% YoY). Key buyers: China (415,500 t), Egypt (226,900 t), Japan (87,100 t).
• Meal Sales: 480,937 tons, exceeding market estimates.
• Oil Sales: 11,134 tons, near the upper end of expectations.
• CFTC Commitment: Funds lifted net-long positions on CBOT soybeans by 40,463 contracts to 163,611—showing renewed speculative interest.

⛅ Weather & Regional Outlook

• US Midwest: Near-term weather appears favorable, with little reported stress ahead of key planting and early growth stages.
• South America: Southern Brazil and Argentina continue to monitor moisture, but no acute threat reported. Normal seasonal risks remain.
• China: No major weather impacts flagged in key growing or logistics areas.

🌏 Global Production & Inventories

Key Exporters	Production (Mt)	Inventories (Mt)
US	Approx. 120	High, but diminishing due to robust exports
Brazil	Approx. 156	Ample, absorbing demand redirected from US
Argentina	44	Steady, some logistical tightness

Key Importers	Imports (Mt)	Catalysts
China	98-100	Policy, tariffs, price/availability—shifting preference toward Brazil, potential for Canadian canola substitution
EU	15	Stable, price-driven

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued volatility as markets digest both tariff headlines and robust US export data.
• Short-term sentiment slightly bearish due to legal and policy headwinds (Supreme Court ruling, China shift).
• Support zones: Watch for buyers near 1110–1120 US¢/bu CBOT (Nov/Jan contracts).
• Key resistance: The 1150–1165 US¢/bu band, especially if fresh China demand or weather scare arises.
• Monitor speculative fund flows: new net-long increases could amplify short-covering rallies.
• Exporters: Hedge sales opportunistically on rallies, particularly if US-China relations deteriorate.
• Importers: Consider locking in nearby needs, given strong export flows and speculative positioning.
• Keep track of Canadian canola and Malaysian palm oil as substitute markets and price anchors for the oilseed complex.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Product	Latest Price	3-Day Forecast
CBOT	Soybeans Mar 26	1130.25 US¢/bu	1125–1140 US¢/bu (sideways to slightly lower)
DCE	Soybeans Mar 26	4564 CNY/t	4550–4630 CNY/t (mildly firm, demand-driven)
Spot Offer	US No.2, FOB	0.52 EUR/kg	0.51–0.53 EUR/kg (stable, awaiting direction)
Spot Offer	CN Yellow, FOB	0.69 EUR/kg	0.68–0.72 EUR/kg (mild strength)