Soybeans Rally: CBoT Hits Multi-Month Highs on China Hopes, Despite Export Lulls

The global Soybeans market has recently witnessed a notable rally, with contract prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) reaching their highest levels since mid-November. After gains seen on Tuesday, the rally continued into Wednesday’s early trading. This surge is primarily driven by optimism for robust Chinese demand, underpinned by steady soybean shipments to China in recent weeks. However, physical demand signals are mixed. The last USDA-confirmed Chinese soybean purchase dates back over two weeks, and market activity is temporarily subdued by the Chinese New Year holidays. Despite this, traders generally do not expect the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs to have a lasting negative effect on Chinese imports. Even with presidential powers on tariffs narrowed, speculation persists that policy maneuvering will continue to shape the trade landscape.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, CBoT soybean oil prices have risen to new yearly highs—soaring nearly 25% YTD—bolstering the entire oilseed complex and driving up cash prices in Germany, as well as ICE canola futures in Winnipeg. The anticipation of lower Chinese import tariffs on Canadian canola by early March has also triggered new shipments. Meanwhile, the palm oil market faces headwinds from a firmer Malaysian ringgit and weak exports, causing several days of price declines. Against this backdrop, February Brazilian soybean exports are forecasted at 11.69 million tonnes—substantially higher than last year’s 9.73 million. This dynamic highlights a competitive and shifting landscape for global soybean trade, where fundamental trends, weather, and policy developments will steer forthcoming price action.

📈 Soybeans Prices at Key Exchanges

Exchange/Contract	Last Price	Change	Unit/Currency	Market Sentiment
CBoT Soybeans Mar 26	1,143.00	+3.50 (+0.31%)	US-Cent/bu	Firm/Bullish
CBoT Soybeans May 26	1,159.50	+4.25 (+0.37%)	US-Cent/bu	Firm/Bullish
DCE Soybeans Mar 26	4,552.00	-12.00 (-0.26%)	CNY/t	Soft/Stable
DCE Soybeans May 26	4,632.00	-25.00 (-0.54%)	CNY/t	Soft/Stable

For current FOB offer prices (supplementary): US (Washington D.C.) – €0.52/kg; CN (Beijing) yellow soybeans – €0.69/kg; CN (Beijing) yellow organic – €0.77/kg.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Chinese Import Demand: Export volumes to China remain firm, yet there has been no new major purchase confirmed by USDA for over two weeks. Chinese demand optimism persists but hinges on post-holiday buying activity.
• Brazilian Exports: Brazil’s February soybean shipments are now estimated at 11.69 million tonnes, up over 20% year-on-year. This is strengthening competition in global export markets.
• US Trade Policy: Although a recent Supreme Court decision restricts the US President’s ability to unilaterally set tariffs, traders expect continued U.S.-China trade negotiation maneuvering.
• Festival Effect: The Chinese New Year brought a temporary pause to buying activity, but demand is expected to re-emerge in March.

📊 Soybeans Market Fundamentals

• Strong Soybean Oil Market: CBoT soybean oil prices have risen almost 25% since the start of the year, boosting the entire oilseed complex and supporting related markets (e.g., rapeseed/canola).
• Rapeseed & Canola Correlation: Rapeseed prices in Germany and Canadian canola (ICE Winnipeg) have tracked the soybean oil rally, with expectations that China will soon lower its tariffs on Canadian imports.
• Malaise in Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil futures have struggled, weighed by weak exports and currency movements, briefly capping oilseed bullishness.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• South America: The Brazilian harvest proceeds amid generally favorable weather, supporting export pace—even as localized dryness may influence later yield reports.
• US Midwest: While not immediate, attention will soon shift toward US spring weather forecasts, which could affect new crop planting intentions and early crop development.

🌐 Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2026 Projected Exports (Feb)	Key Trend
Brazil	11.69 million t	Strong export growth (+20% YoY)
USA	n/a (see USDA weekly reports)	Stable exports, awaiting new China deals
China	n/a (importer)	Steady import pace, short-term holiday lull

📌 Key Market Insights

• Fundamentals are currently dominated by the interplay between US-China trade policy and Brazilian export momentum.
• Chinese demand is the primary variable—any post-festival purchasing surge could extend the bull run.
• Soyoil’s strong rally is feeding back into higher values for the broader oilseed complex.
• Palm oil weakness and crude oil declines serve as minor, but growing, headwinds for oilseed prices.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term traders can consider holding long positions, but be alert to profit-taking if post-festival Chinese buying disappoints.
• Monitor USDA export sales reports closely—new China purchases would provide further upside momentum.
• Hedge exposure if holding inventory—volatility expected around March as China re-enters after holidays and US planting intention news emerges.
• Track canola rapeseed and palm oil markets for cross-commodity cues; any rise in palm oil may add new bullish energy to soybeans.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
CBoT (US)	1,143-1,160 c/bu	1,145-1,170 c/bu	1,140-1,175 c/bu	1,138-1,175 c/bu
DCE (CN)	4,552-4,632 CNY/t	4,550-4,670 CNY/t	4,540-4,660 CNY/t	4,530-4,650 CNY/t

Note: Price ranges reflect current volatility and expected trade resumption in China.