Soybeans Rebound on Argentina Weather and Strong Oil – Caution Ahead of EPA Ruling
Soybean futures rose on Tuesday as flooding in Argentina threatened harvest quality, while a recovery in soy oil lent additional support. Still, uncertainty around U.S. biodiesel policy limits the rally’s potential.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development
On Tuesday, the July 2025 contract on the CBOT rose by +2.25 ct to 1,053 ct/bu (~347 EUR/t). Futures posted their fourth gain in five sessions, fueled by oil-led support and concerns over harvest conditions in Argentina.
| Contract | Price (ct/bu) | Daily Change | EUR/t (approx) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25 | 1,053.00 | +2.25 | ~347 EUR/t | ⬆️ |
| Aug 25 | 1,050.25 | +2.00 | ~346 EUR/t | ⬆️ |
| Nov 25 | 1,037.25 | 0.00 | ~342 EUR/t | ➡️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Argentina Flooding Delays Harvest
Heavy rainfall threatens quality and delays remaining soybean harvests. Concerns grow over yield losses and storage risks. - Soy Oil Recovery Continues
After last week’s collapse, soy oil gained +0.91%, helping lift soybean values. Traders await clarity on EPA biodiesel blending targets. - Fast U.S. Planting Progress
Although weather conditions remain favourable in the U.S. Midwest, planting progress is already near seasonal highs, reducing bearish potential. - China Demand Outlook Mixed
Traders remain cautious as import interest from China has been sluggish, despite an improved diplomatic tone. - Argentina Ends Tax Relief in June
The export tax discount on soybeans and oil will expire at the end of June, likely limiting exports and shifting demand forward.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Soybeans are recovering but are capped by fundamental and policy uncertainties. Technical momentum is improving, but resistance near 1,060 remains strong.
Strategy:
– Maintain cautious longs with stops below 1,045
– Monitor USDA export data and EPA headlines
– Consider hedging if soy oil fails to hold above 50 ct/lb
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract)
| Date | Expected Range (ct/bu) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 22 | 1,050–1,060 | ⬆️ Near-Term Upside |
| May 23 | 1,048–1,058 | ➡️ Consolidation |
| May 24 | 1,045–1,055 | ➡️ Neutral Bias |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Soybean Regions
| Region | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Midwest | 🌤️ Dry & optimal | Seeding >5-year avg; little weather stress |
| Southern Brazil | 🌦️ Minor rains | End of harvest approaching |
| Argentina | 🌧️ Wet | Flooding delays harvest and affects quality |
| China (Northeast) | 🌦️ Scattered rain | Slight delays in planting, mostly manageable |
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