Soybeans Up on USDA Sale and Trade Optimism – Gains Short-Lived

🌱 Soybeans Up on USDA Sale and Trade Optimism – Gains Short-Lived

Soybean prices firmed Thursday on a reported export sale and improving U.S.–China relations, though Friday morning trade reversed as traders turned cautious ahead of the WASDE report.

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📊 CBOT Soybeans – Market Overview (July 25 Contract)

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• USDA Export Sale: 225,000 t of soybeans for 2025/26 sold to Pakistan.

• Weekly Sales: 376,653 t reported for 2024/25, 12.2% below last year.

• WASDE Outlook (due Monday):

  • Old crop ending stocks expected down 6 million bu to 369 million bu.

  • New crop forecast at 362 million bu.

• Brazil Exports:

  • April: 15.27 Mio t (+4% m/m, +4% y/y)

  • May Forecast: 12.6 Mio t (↓ from 13.5 Mio y/y)

  • Jan–Apr: 40 Mio t total, 30 Mio t to China.

  • China resumes imports from 5 previously suspended exporters.

• China Policy Watch:

  • Long-term goal: reduce dependence on imported oilseeds.

  • Investment in high-yield, short-cycle domestic rapeseed.