The international sugar beet market has retreated in the latest trading sessions as ample supplies, easing weather risks, and subdued demand growth combine to push prices down from recent highs. After a period of volatility driven by global production concerns and logistical bottlenecks, new data suggests the market is headed towards a period of increased stability, albeit with clear downside momentum for prices. While sugar beet-derived refined sugar remains a strategic staple in both European and broader international markets, recent supply chain normalization and promising weather forecasts for key growing regions are beginning to ease tensions. The latest contracts on the ICE Zucker Nr.5 (Raw Sugar No. 5 futures, USD/t) demonstrate a distinct downward trend as traders respond to these improved fundamentals. Meanwhile, the spot and forward markets in Europe show competitive offers for granulated and specialty sugars, reinforcing the notion of a well-supplied marketplace. Yet, with macroeconomic uncertainties and the ongoing influence of speculative traders, volatility remains a factor to watch closely.
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Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.44 €/kg
(from LT)
Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.45 €/kg
(from LT)
Icing sugar
Cukr moučka amylín
FCA 0.65 €/kg
(from CZ)
📈 Prices: Recent Market Movements
| Contract | Last Price (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mär 26 | 415.90 | -1.54% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Mai 26 | 412.50 | -1.55% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Aug 26 | 409.10 | -1.49% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Okt 26 | 409.30 | -1.42% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Dez 26 | 412.60 | -1.24% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Mär 27 | 416.90 | -1.08% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Mai 27 | 419.30 | -0.95% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Aug 27 | 422.10 | -0.76% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Okt 27 | 425.10 | -0.64% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Dez 27 | 430.60 | -0.49% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Mär 28 | 437.00 | -0.43% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Mai 28 | 441.40 | -0.43% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Aug 28 | 444.10 | -0.43% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
| Okt 28 | 446.50 | -0.43% | 18.12.2025 | Bearish |
Key European Spot Prices (EUR/kg)
| Product | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45 | LT | Marijampole (LT) | 0.44 | -0.01 | 2025-12-17 |
| Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45 | LT | Marijampole (LT) | 0.45 | — | 2025-12-17 |
| Icing sugar (Cukr moučka amylín) | CZ | Vyškov (CZ) | 0.65 | — | 2025-12-17 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Production Recovery: Major producers in the EU (Germany, France, Poland, Lithuania) have reported higher-than-expected yields for 2025, rebounding after last season’s weather-related challenges.
- Inventories: Global raw sugar stocks have increased, with India and Thailand both lifting export quotas on improved harvest outlooks.
- Demand Trends: Both industrial and retail buyers in Europe have maintained purchasing levels, but high inventories are limiting spot price support.
- Speculation: Funds have significantly reduced long positions as risk appetite wanes amid softer fundamentals and improving weather data.
📊 Fundamentals: Key Data Points
- EU sugar beet yields in the 2025/26 season are running approx. 5-7% above the previous five-year average.
- Export competition from Brazil and Thailand is intensifying, though logistics in some regions remain a watchpoint.
- USDA and EU Commission forecasts both suggest stable to slightly expanding acreage in 2026 as input costs remain manageable.
- Price competitiveness: European refined sugar offers remain at multi-month lows, confirming broad market stability in the near term.
⛅ Weather Outlook: Impact on Crops
- Latest weather models for Central and Eastern Europe (Germany, France, Poland, Lithuania) predict favorable, mild winter conditions with limited frost and adequate moisture. This supports robust early development for 2026 sugar beet stands.
- No major drought or excessive rainfall events are expected in key areas through the next month, diminishing previous crop loss concerns.
- Brazil’s Center-South region, key for cane sugar, is experiencing typical seasonal patterns—no emerging threats currently seen that would affect raw sugar flows.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country/Region | 2024/25 Output (mt) | Stock/Usage Ratio | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU (beet sugar) | ~16.5M | 15% | Up |
| Brazil (cane sugar) | ~42M | 24% | Stable |
| India | ~31M | 21% | Up |
| Thailand | ~10M | 14% | Up |
| China | ~10M | 10% | Up |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Market bias remains bearish in the near term given increased supply, stronger crops, and limited speculative support.
- Sellers: Consider locking in forward sales on remaining 2024/25 inventory—further price slippage is likely before a potential late 2025 rebound.
- Buyers: Take advantage of multi-month price lows for spot and forward purchasing; stock up for Q1/Q2 2026 requirements.
- Speculators: Maintain a cautious stance; re-enter long positions only on signs of unexpected supply-side disruptions or new demand surges.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Exchange/Location | Current Price | 1-Day | 2-Day | 3-Day | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE Sugar No.5 (Mar 26) | 415.90 USD/t | 414.80 | 413.50 | 412.80 | ↓ |
| EU (LT, ICUMSA 45) | 0.44 EUR/kg | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.43 | ↓ |
| EU (PL, KAT EU2) | 0.43 EUR/kg | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | → |
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