Sugar Beet Slips: Market Trends, Prices & Insightful Drivers for 2025/26

The sugar beet market has entered a phase of notable adjustment, reflecting weaker prices across global exchanges and key European cash markets. Traders and industrial buyers are closely watching ICE Sugar No. 11 futures, where contracts for March 2026 to October 2028 have lost between 0.41% and 0.89%, with the nearest contract (March 2026) settling at 14.76 US-cent/lb. These declines signal softer sentiment as global supplies exceed short-term consumption, prompting cautious procurement. In Europe, spot granulated sugar prices range from €0.43 to €0.48/kg FCA, with minor decreases recently recorded—driven by robust autumn harvests and steadily rising stocks.

Global fundamentals are shifting. Record crop progress in EU beet regions, solid output expectations in Brazil, and higher beginning stocks in India are collectively pressuring international values. Weather patterns remain mostly favorable for beets in Central Europe, though pockets of late wetness could affect extraction rates. With sugar markets trending quietly lower and global inventory-to-use ratios climbing, participants are recalibrating price forecasts and risk management strategies. The road ahead is still paved with volatility, tied to future acreage decisions, fuel price shifts, and weather unpredictability. For now, sellers face a slightly pressured market while buyers stand to benefit from competitive spot offers.

📈 ICE Futures & European Spot Prices

Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
ICE Sugar No. 11 Mar 26	14.76 US-cent/lb	-0.41%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 May 26	14.36 US-cent/lb	-0.56%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Jul 26	14.37 US-cent/lb	-0.63%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Oct 26	14.70 US-cent/lb	-0.68%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Mar 27	15.39 US-cent/lb	-0.71%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 May 27	15.24 US-cent/lb	-0.66%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Jul 27	15.23 US-cent/lb	-0.66%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Oct 27	15.45 US-cent/lb	-0.71%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Mar 28	16.01 US-cent/lb	-0.75%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 May 28	15.83 US-cent/lb	-0.82%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Jul 28	15.80 US-cent/lb	-0.89%	Bearish
ICE Sugar No. 11 Oct 28	16.00 US-cent/lb	-0.88%	Bearish

Origin	Description	Location	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change
Lithuania	Sugar granulated, ICUMSA 45	Marijampole	€0.44	-0.01
Lithuania	Sugar granulated, ICUMSA 45	Marijampole	€0.45	0.00
Czechia	Icing sugar, Cukr moučka amylín	Vyškov	€0.65	0.00
Poland	Sugar granulated, Kat EU2	Kalisz	€0.43	0.00
Poland	Sugar granulated, Fine 400–850	Kalisz	€0.45	-0.02
Poland	Sugar granulated, KAT EU 2	Kalisz	€0.43	-0.02
Poland	Sugar granulated, white-crystal Icumsa-45	Warschau	€0.48	-0.02
PL/CZ	Sugar granulated, KAT EU 2 Czech	Kalisz	€0.46	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• EU sugar beet harvests reported above five-year averages, supporting higher stocks for Q1 2026.
• Brazil sets record exports on strong cane yields after favorable weather and logistics improvements.
• India’s beet and cane production up ~5% year-on-year due to expanded acreage and improved rainfall, underpinning global surpluses.
• USDA’s December outlook pegs 2025/26 global production at a multi-year high; stock-to-use ratio climbs near 17%.
• Speculative positioning: Managed funds trimming long positions in sugar futures as downside risk emerges.
• Industrial demand steady in Europe, while export competitiveness rises on softer regional prices.

📊 Fundamentals Overview

• Global stocks-to-use ratios remain elevated versus a year ago, limiting price rally potential.
• Currency movements (notably EUR/USD volatility) increasing export attractiveness from CEE producers.
• Energy costs stable but closely watched, as fuel is a key input for planting and irrigation.
• Global freight rates for sugar remain low, encouraging cross-border activity.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Western & Central Europe (France, Germany, Poland): Predominantly mild, wet conditions forecasted; could slightly delay late-season fieldwork but benefit root sugar content.
• Ukraine: Strong precipitation helps replenish soil moisture, supporting next cycle planting intentions.
• Brazil: Intermittent showers in south-central region; supports cane development and export flows.
• Minor frost risk in Eastern Europe; no major damage expected but could prompt last-minute logistical adjustments.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison (2025/26)

Country	2024/25 Output (mt)	2025/26 Outlook (mt)	Ending Stocks (mt)
EU (all)	16.7	17.1 (est.)	2.6
Brazil	40.5	41.5 (est.)	6.2
India	34.8	36.2 (est.)	5.0
Russia	5.4	5.5 (est.)	1.1
USA	8.2	8.1 (est.)	1.3
China	9.8	10 (est.)	2.0

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Procurement: Spot buyers advised to exploit current price softness; forward coverage recommended at/near today’s lows.
• Sellers: Consider holding additional stocks for late-winter/spring periods as prices may stabilize after seasonal lows.
• Industry: Monitor energy and freight costs—the main cost threats for Q2 2026 contracts.
• Watch global weather, especially late-season rainfall dynamics in Europe and South America.
• Monitor emerging beet planting estimates for EU 2026/27 season (acreage could shift with price incentives).
• Speculators: Downside momentum persists; wait for clear technical reversal before re-entering long positions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• ICE Sugar No. 11 (Mar 26): 14.60–14.90 US-cent/lb, with weak bias as speculative pressure lingers.
• EU Spot (LT, PL, CZ): €0.43–€0.48/kg, prices seen steady to marginally softer as inventory remains ample.
• Poland/Czechia processing: Market stays competitive; high availability should hold prices in current band, but frost impact risk next week.