The global sugar cane market, as reflected by the ICE Zucker Nr.5 contracts, is in the midst of a nuanced yet telling transition. The recent trading data paints a story of subtle price slides in the near-term contracts and modest gains further along the forward curve. Current futures reveal a delicate interplay between residual bearish pressures and cautious optimism stemming from future supply and demand expectations. This report delves deeply into the current market fabric—directly tied to Raw Text benchmarks—while supplementing with selective weather and production insights for global context.
📈 Prices: Latest ICE Zucker Nr.5 Futures Snapshot
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change | % Change | Date | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | 407.20 | -1.00 | -0.25% | 24.02.2026 | 6962 |
| Aug 26 | 404.80 | -0.60 | -0.15% | 24.02.2026 | 3131 |
| Oct 26 | 405.00 | -0.40 | -0.10% | 24.02.2026 | 2203 |
| Dec 26 | 408.20 | +0.40 | +0.10% | 24.02.2026 | 1318 |
| Mar 27 | 413.60 | +0.90 | +0.22% | 24.02.2026 | 472 |
| May 27 | 416.00 | +1.10 | +0.26% | 24.02.2026 | 245 |
| Aug 27 | 417.50 | +1.20 | +0.29% | 24.02.2026 | 40 |
| Oct 27 | 420.20 | +1.20 | +0.29% | 24.02.2026 | 18 |
| Dec 27 | 425.50 | +1.10 | +0.26% | 24.02.2026 | 4 |
| Mar 28 | 431.80 | +1.20 | +0.28% | 24.02.2026 | 1 |
| May 28 | 436.60 | +1.20 | +0.27% | 24.02.2026 | 0 |
| Aug 28 | 440.80 | +1.20 | +0.27% | 24.02.2026 | 0 |
| Oct 28 | 444.30 | +1.20 | +0.27% | 24.02.2026 | 0 |
| Dec 28 | 447.30 | +1.20 | +0.27% | 24.02.2026 | 0 |
Market Sentiment: Short-term contracts show slight declines, while contracts from December 2026 onward advance modestly, reflecting a minor contango structure and hints of longer-term market confidence.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Soft Demand vs. Cost Pressure: The slide in near-term contracts indicates lingering demand softness or robust supply; however, higher out-month prices suggest expectations for improved fundamentals or potential supply-side headwinds in later periods.
- Forward Curves: Contango evident from Jan 2027 onward could reflect anticipated tightening stocks, cost-push inflation, or production uncertainty for late 2027-28.
- Trading Volumes: Hectic volumes in front months (esp. May & Aug 2026) signal continued short-term trading interest, with rapidly declining interest in out-years.
- Speculative Positioning: The gentle price appreciation in deferred contracts may be fueled by speculative interests expecting price support from structural market changes or weather impacts.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Context
- Main Exporters: Brazil, India, and Thailand remain pivotal to global flows. Production estimates for Brazil are tight but steady, while India faces policy-driven export curbs. Thailand is recovering from earlier drought stress.
- Global Inventories: World stocks historically tight but improving, aligning with muted front-month prices but supporting premium for future delivery.
- Cost Structure: Strong USD and lingering freight tensions keep costs elevated for key importing regions.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Brazil: Recent reports highlight normal rainfall but some regions risk late frost impacting yields. El Niño moderating but not gone.
- India: Pre-monsoon conditions show patchy rains; the government maintains minimum support prices but is controlling exports to offset any domestic shortage from erratic weather.
- Thailand: Favorable rains support recovery in cane yields, mitigating last year’s drought effects.
🌏 Production & Stocks Overview
| Country | 2023/24 Output (Mt) | 2023/24 Stocks (Mt) | 2024/25 Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 40.7 | 2.9 | Stable |
| India | 34.5 | 6.0 | Lower exports |
| Thailand | 11.4 | 1.6 | Recovery |
| EU | 16.2 | 1.3 | Steady |
| China | 9.8 | 1.1 | Steady |
- Major Importers: China, Indonesia, USA, and the EU are highly price sensitive amid recent inventory gains.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Near-Term (May–Oct 2026): Slightly bearish/sideways; monitor for supply surprises in Brazil and India export policy.
- Medium-Term (Late 2026–2027): Market shows a constructive bias; consider building long positions on price dips, especially if weather volatility or shipping disruptions arise.
- Longer-Term (2027–2028): Constructive; price resilience is likely if global inventories do not recover further. Consider using deferred contracts for hedging upside exposure.
- Key Risks: Policy swings in India, adverse weather in Brazil, speculative surges, and freight spikes.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (ICE Zucker Nr.5)
| Date | May 26 (USD/t) | Aug 26 (USD/t) | Dec 26 (USD/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 406.5 – 408.5 | 404.0 – 405.5 | 407.5 – 409.5 |
| Day 2 | 406.0 – 408.0 | 403.8 – 405.5 | 407.0 – 409.0 |
| Day 3 | 405.5 – 407.5 | 403.5 – 405.0 | 406.8 – 408.8 |
Regional Sentiment: Slight bias to the downside in May/Aug terms, with stability in late 2026 contracts. Watch for any sudden weather or policy headlines.
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