Sugar Futures Break Out – Strongest Daily Gain Since March

📈 Sugar Futures Break Out – Strongest Daily Gain Since March

On 13 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 surged across the curve, led by the August 2025 contract, which jumped 2.90% to USD 509.80/t (EUR 472.09/t). This is the strongest single-day gain in nearly two months, driven by technical breakouts, fund inflows, and rising energy markets. Despite the rally, EU FCA spot prices remain fixed at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, further widening the physical–futures gap.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (13.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	509.80	+2.90%	472.09
Oct 25	503.60	+2.62%	466.35
Dec 25	502.50	+2.53%	465.37
Mar 26	504.70	+2.46%	467.39
May 26	502.00	+2.27%	465.29
Aug 26	498.80	+2.09%	462.88

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.926 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot

📍 FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
📉 Despite rising futures, no adjustments by EU refiners or sellers.
📦 Market contacts report continued buyer resistance above EUR 0.60/kg.

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🛍️ Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 13.05.2025)

(verified via file upload)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
France	E.Leclerc	1.39 €
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €
Netherlands	Jumbo	0.93 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures Aug	0.472	USD 509.80/t converted to €/kg
EU Spot FCA	0.56–0.59	Unchanged since early May
Retail Germany	0.69	Kaufland (latest update)
Retail France	1.39	E.Leclerc

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (14–16 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
14 May	504 – 514	467 – 476
15 May	500 – 510	464 – 473
16 May	495 – 505	459 – 468

📌 Outlook:
The breakout above USD 500/t opens the door for further technical buying. But without a shift in physical demand, the upside remains vulnerable.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Strong bullish signal triggered – short-covering likely fueled gains.
📉 Physical market not responding; EU prices unchanged.
🛍️ Retail levels show no pressure from the wholesale side – margin remains stable.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Monitor closely – new offers likely to emerge above EUR 0.58/kg.
• 📦 Sellers: Hedge opportunistically above USD 510/t; market strength may not last.
• 📊 Traders: Watch next resistance at USD 514–515/t – profit-taking risk grows.

📍 Summary:
Momentum returns to the sugar market – but fundamentals haven’t changed. Smart positioning is needed.