Sugar Futures Drift Lower – Market Pressure Builds Amid Silent EU Demand
On 20 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures extended their gradual decline. The August 2025 contract fell by 0.49% to USD 487.10/t (EUR 452.00/t). Despite stable technical levels, the market lacks clear direction. Meanwhile, EU spot trade remains stagnant, and retail prices show no reaction.
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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (20.05.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 487.10 | -0.49% | 452.00 |
| Oct 25 | 483.10 | -0.64% | 447.28 |
| Dec 25 | 482.80 | -0.58% | 447.00 |
| Mar 26 | 485.40 | -0.58% | 449.42 |
| May 26 | 483.40 | -0.56% | 447.56 |
| Aug 26 | 480.80 | -0.56% | 445.14 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.928 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – A Quiet Spot Market
📍 EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
📉 No significant industrial purchases reported.
📦 German producers continue to defend EUR 0.60/kg but are undercut by Polish and Dutch competition.
⚠️ Many buyers reportedly delaying Q3 negotiations.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 20.05.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.452 | Downtrend continues |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.56–0.59 | Unchanged despite global weakness |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Stable shelf price |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | The lowest EU benchmark remains |
🔮 3-Day Forecast (21–23 May 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 21 May | 482 – 492 | 447 – 456 |
| 22 May | 478 – 488 | 444 – 453 |
| 23 May | 475 – 485 | 440 – 450 |
📌 Outlook:
Soft tone may persist unless macro factors or buyer interest shift.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 Futures market drifts, volume modest.
📦 EU spot flat and unresponsive – risk of oversupply builds.
🛍️ No retail reaction – stable margins for supermarkets.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Good time to negotiate forward contracts under EUR 0.57/kg.
- 📦 Sellers: Avoid pricing above market – competition remains high.
- 📊 Traders: Watch USD 482/t – short-term support holding for now.
📍 Summary:
No new impulse in the sugar market. Buyers wait, sellers defend, futures erode quietly.