Sugar Futures Rebound – Traders React to Technical Floor and Fund Activity

📈 Sugar Futures Rebound – Traders React to Technical Floor and Fund Activity

After a stagnant holiday session, ICE Sugar No.5 returned to active trading on 6 May with broad-based gains. The August 2025 contract rose by 0.83% to USD 493.80/t (EUR 459.23/t). Technical buying, short-covering, and a rebound in oil prices helped lift prices across the curve. Despite the uptick, sentiment remains cautious as fundamentals are unchanged.

---

📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (06.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	493.80	+0.83%	459.23
Oct 25	484.40	+1.05%	450.49
Dec 25	482.50	+1.12%	448.73
Mar 26	485.80	+1.13%	451.79
May 26	484.70	+0.99%	450.77
Aug 26	483.20	+0.85%	449.38

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

---

🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Rebound Fueled by Technical Factors
– Prices rose after touching key support levels last week.
– Speculators likely closed short positions amid stronger energy markets.
– Fundamentals (high supply, weak demand) remain unchanged.

📊 Volume Recovery
– August 2025: 7,779 lots traded (highest since 29 April).
– Broad participation across October and December contracts indicates wider market re-engagement.

🇪🇺 EU Market Reaction Still Muted
– FCA prices still range between EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, unchanged from prior days.
– Importers are cautious, but retail pricing is still elevated.

---

🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 06.05.2025)

Latest verification: within 3 days

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note
Germany	Aldi	0.85 €	Regular shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Market-leading price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Ongoing promotion
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	Aldi price match offer
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker
Hungary	Tesco	0.69 €	Kristálycukor

---

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (7–9 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
07 May	488 – 498	454 – 463
08 May	485 – 495	451 – 460
09 May	480 – 490	446 – 456

📌 Outlook:
Short-term rebound could continue toward USD 498/t, but macro and demand risks cap upside.

---

🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Rebound driven by technicals, not fundamentals.
📉 Physical sugar is still oversupplied; the demand side remains soft.
🔍 Volatility expected to return ahead of Brazil’s mid-May harvest updates.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Use current levels for short-term cover, avoid chasing spikes.
• 📦 Sellers: Watch resistance at USD 498–500/t; consider hedging Q3.
• 📊 Traders: Momentum has flipped positive, but fragile – trail stops closely.

📍 Summary: Sugar futures bounced back, but confidence is still tentative.