Sugar Futures Reverse Course – Selling Pressure Returns Near Key Resistance

📉 Sugar Futures Reverse Course – Selling Pressure Returns Near Key Resistance

On 12 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures retreated from multi-session highs, with the August 2025 contract falling 0.99% to USD 495.00/t (EUR 459.35/t). Despite last week’s strength, renewed selling pressure near the USD 500/t resistance indicates market hesitation. Meanwhile, EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, deepening the disconnection with falling global benchmarks.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (12.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	495.00	-0.99%	459.35
Oct 25	490.40	-0.37%	455.07
Dec 25	489.80	-0.14%	454.71
Mar 26	492.30	-0.16%	456.84
May 26	490.60	-0.24%	455.26
Aug 26	488.40	-0.37%	453.21

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.928 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot

📍 FCA spot prices unchanged at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg (steady for over a week).
📉 EU importers remain hesitant to adjust, despite a clear downward trend on ICE.
📦 No significant volume reported from third-country imports or forward deals.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 12.05.2025)

Latest verified via file upload

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
France	E.Leclerc	1.39 €
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €
Netherlands	Jumbo	0.93 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures Aug	0.459	USD 495/t converted to €/kg
EU Spot FCA	0.56–0.59	Unchanged since early May
Retail Germany	0.69	Kaufland (latest update)
Retail France	1.39	E.Leclerc

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (13–15 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
13 May	490 – 500	455 – 465
14 May	485 – 495	450 – 460
15 May	480 – 490	446 – 456

📌 Outlook:
Technicals suggest a correction phase below USD 500/t.
Without stronger physical demand or weather triggers, upside appears limited.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

❌ Rally ran into predictable resistance at USD 500/t.
📉 Disconnect between ICE futures and EU spot prices widens.
🛍️ Retail shelf prices show no pass-through effects yet.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Push harder on FCA deals – futures correction supports better terms.
• 📦 Sellers: Avoid pricing above EUR 0.60/kg – buyers have alternatives.
• 📊 Traders: Watch volume; if selling accelerates below 490 USD/t, expect further drop.

📍 Summary:
The sugar market is testing its ceiling, but no follow-through.
Momentum fading, and the EU market remains inert.