Sugar Market Drops Sharply – May Contract Hit by Expiry Pressure
On 15 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw significant losses. The May 2025 contract plunged by 2.79% to USD 513.10/t (EUR 477.20/t), pressured by expiration-related liquidation and continued lack of physical demand. All subsequent contracts also declined, while EU spot offers remain unchanged at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA, though momentum appears to be fading.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (15.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 513.10 | -2.79% | 477.20 |
| Aug 25 | 490.10 | -1.61% | 455.79 |
| Oct 25 | 484.80 | -1.51% | 450.86 |
| Dec 25 | 484.40 | -1.38% | 450.49 |
| Mar 26 | 487.40 | -1.21% | 453.28 |
| May 26 | 486.70 | -1.01% | 452.63 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
Market Commentary
May Expiry Pressure Dominate– Heavy liquidation in the front-month contract drove prices sharply lower.
– Traders rolled positions into August and October contracts, which also declined.
EU Prices Hold – But Sentiment Softens
– No change was reported in the offers: EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA.
– Feedback from buyers suggests resistance is growing, especially with global prices dropping.
Retail Market Remains Stable But Lower
– Discount pricing continues across CEE and Germany – no signal of upward retail movement.
Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 15.04.2025)
Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) | Note/Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Edeka | 0.69 € | Standard shelf price |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € | Standard shelf price |
| Austria | SPAR | 1.58 € | 0.79 €/500 g Staubzucker |
| Czech Rep. | Kaufland | 0.50 € | With Kaufland Card |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € | Promotional offer |
| UK | Tesco | 0.96 € | £0.82 Aldi Price Match |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.79 € | Bonus price |
3-Day Price Forecast (16–18 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr | 508 – 518 | 472 – 481 |
| 17 Apr | 505 – 515 | 470 – 479 |
| 18 Apr | 502 – 512 | 467 – 476 |
Outlook:
The downtrend remains intact. The next key support lies at USD 510/t. Without demand, pressure is likely to continue.
Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
Conclusion & Strategy
Market confirms bearish outlook – weakness spreading across the curve.
EU producers still pushing high offers – but buyers are increasingly resistant.
Technical and fundamental pressure weighs heavily on price.
Recommendations:
- Buyers: Push back on offers – spot prices should begin correcting.
Sellers: Adjust pricing strategy – current levels not aligned with the market.- Traders: Watch for further downside if USD 510/t fails to hold.
Summary: A structural correction may be underway. Watch EU market sentiment closely.