📉 Sugar Market Extends Losses – Pressure Mounts as Demand Remains Weak
On 28 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued to slide, with the August 2025 contract falling by 1.72% to USD 505.30/t (EUR 470.93/t). Broad-based losses across the forward curve reflect ample supply, soft global demand, and growing pessimism among traders. Meanwhile, the EU market remains detached, with FCA spot prices stubbornly holding at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, despite clear signs of international weakness.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (28.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 505.30 | -1.72% | 470.93 |
| Oct 25 | 496.30 | -1.51% | 462.56 |
| Dec 25 | 493.30 | -1.32% | 459.77 |
| Mar 26 | 494.80 | -1.13% | 461.16 |
| May 26 | 491.00 | -1.04% | 458.63 |
| Aug 26 | 487.70 | -0.98% | 455.56 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Commentary
📉 Broad-Based Selloff Reflects Weak Fundamentals
– No new catalysts; traders continue to liquidate long positions.
– Seasonal pressure from the beginning of Brazil’s harvest also weighs heavily.
🇪🇺 EU Spot Prices Remain High – Gap Widens Further
– No adjustment in EU offers: still EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA.
– Import restrictions and tariff protection continue to insulate EU producers, frustrating buyers.
🛍️ Retail Market Stable at Low Levels
– No upward movement in retail prices observed across core markets.
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 28.04.2025)
Last verified within the last 3 days.
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) | Note/Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Edeka | 0.89 € | Standard shelf price |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € | Standard shelf price |
| Austria | BILLA | 1.49 € | Feinkristallzucker (1 kg) |
| Czech Rep. | Kaufland | 0.50 € | With Kaufland Card |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € | Promotional offer |
| UK | Tesco | 0.96 € | £0.82 Aldi Price Match |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € | Kristalsuiker (1 kg) |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € | Coop Prix Garantie Kristallzucker |
| Hungary | Tesco Hungary | 0.69 € | Kristálycukor, 1 kg |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (29 April – 1 May 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr | 498 – 508 | 463 – 472 |
| 30 Apr | 495 – 505 | 460 – 470 |
| 01 May | 490 – 500 | 456 – 465 |
📌 Outlook:
Downward bias is likely to continue unless unexpected supply disruptions emerge.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Market structure favours sellers – weak demand meets strong supply.
❌ The EU spot market remains overpriced compared to global benchmarks.
📉 Retail realities and global oversupply limit upside potential.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Maintain a cautious approach – pressure on sellers will rise.
- 📦 Sellers: Forward sales should be volume-based; avoid speculative pricing.
- 📊 Traders: Watch support levels near USD 500/t – further breakdown possible.
📍 Summary: Another weak session for sugar, and no change in fundamental outlook.
