Sugar Market Falls Again – Rebound Fizzles as Selling Pressure Returns

Sugar Market Falls Again – Rebound Fizzles as Selling Pressure Returns

On 4 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures reversed Tuesday’s gains, with the August 2025 contract falling by 1.20% to USD 468.10/t (EUR 435.33/t). After a brief recovery, selling pressure has returned amid bearish global fundamentals, low EU demand, and aggressive forward offers from Brazil and India.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (04.06.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	468.10	-1.20%	435.33
Oct 25	466.00	-0.69%	433.38
Dec 25	468.00	-0.64%	435.24
Mar 26	474.30	-0.61%	441.10
May 26	475.20	-0.63%	442.94
Aug 26	475.00	-0.61%	442.75

(Umrechnungskurs: 1 USD = 0,93 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Structural Pressure Continues

📉 EU FCA spot prices remain under pressure at EUR 0.52–0.54/kg, with some factories offering spot below EUR 0.52 to generate forward contracts.
📦 EU buyers remain passive. Inventories are reportedly high, especially in Central Europe.
🌍 Traders report increased freight offers for Q3 shipments from Brazil, further weakening the EU’s pricing position.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 04.06.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.435	Back near recent lows
EU Spot FCA	0.52–0.54	Soft – under factory pressure
Retail Germany	0.69	Unchanged
Retail Poland	0.42	Remains below the wholesale spot

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🌍 Fundamentals & Outlook

• 🌾 Brazil continues shipping large volumes; harvest progressing smoothly
• 🇮🇳 India’s export pipeline remains active for Q3 forward deliveries
• 📦 EU producers struggling to fill contracts – price reductions spreading westward
• 📉 No structural support in sight – price floor may shift further down

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (5–7 June 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
5 June	465 – 475	432 – 442
6 June	463 – 472	430 – 439
7 June	460 – 470	428 – 437

📌 Outlook:
Market sentiment remains bearish. Any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless supported by weather or macro news.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 The rebound has failed – futures are once again under pressure
📦 EU spot is softening further – some factories now quote near EUR 0.51/kg FCA
🛍️ Retail markets remain insulated, but producer margins are tightening

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Take advantage of spot pricing under EUR 0.53/kg for Q3-Q4
• 📦 Sellers: Hedge selectively – downward momentum may not be over
• 📊 Traders: Watch USD 465/t – critical support area for technical buyers

📍 Summary:
Bearish fundamentals have reasserted control. Without demand or weather disruption, further downside remains likely.