Sugar Market Falls Again – Rebound Fizzles as Selling Pressure Returns
On 4 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures reversed Tuesday’s gains, with the August 2025 contract falling by 1.20% to USD 468.10/t (EUR 435.33/t). After a brief recovery, selling pressure has returned amid bearish global fundamentals, low EU demand, and aggressive forward offers from Brazil and India.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (04.06.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 468.10 | -1.20% | 435.33 |
| Oct 25 | 466.00 | -0.69% | 433.38 |
| Dec 25 | 468.00 | -0.64% | 435.24 |
| Mar 26 | 474.30 | -0.61% | 441.10 |
| May 26 | 475.20 | -0.63% | 442.94 |
| Aug 26 | 475.00 | -0.61% | 442.75 |
(Umrechnungskurs: 1 USD = 0,93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Structural Pressure Continues
📉 EU FCA spot prices remain under pressure at EUR 0.52–0.54/kg, with some factories offering spot below EUR 0.52 to generate forward contracts.
📦 EU buyers remain passive. Inventories are reportedly high, especially in Central Europe.
🌍 Traders report increased freight offers for Q3 shipments from Brazil, further weakening the EU’s pricing position.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 04.06.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.435 | Back near recent lows |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.52–0.54 | Soft – under factory pressure |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Unchanged |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Remains below the wholesale spot |
🌍 Fundamentals & Outlook
- 🌾 Brazil continues shipping large volumes; harvest progressing smoothly
- 🇮🇳 India’s export pipeline remains active for Q3 forward deliveries
- 📦 EU producers struggling to fill contracts – price reductions spreading westward
- 📉 No structural support in sight – price floor may shift further down
🔮 3-Day Forecast (5–7 June 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 5 June | 465 – 475 | 432 – 442 |
| 6 June | 463 – 472 | 430 – 439 |
| 7 June | 460 – 470 | 428 – 437 |
📌 Outlook:
Market sentiment remains bearish. Any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless supported by weather or macro news.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 The rebound has failed – futures are once again under pressure
📦 EU spot is softening further – some factories now quote near EUR 0.51/kg FCA
🛍️ Retail markets remain insulated, but producer margins are tightening
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Take advantage of spot pricing under EUR 0.53/kg for Q3-Q4
- 📦 Sellers: Hedge selectively – downward momentum may not be over
- 📊 Traders: Watch USD 465/t – critical support area for technical buyers
📍 Summary:
Bearish fundamentals have reasserted control. Without demand or weather disruption, further downside remains likely.