Sugar Market Rebounds on Technical Buying – August Contract Leads the Way
On 11 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures reversed Tuesday’s losses, with the August 2025 contract climbing 1.06% to USD 472.80/t (EUR 439.70/t). Strong volume in the front month (12.698 Kontrakte) and mild short-covering helped lift the market. However, fundamentals remain weak, and EU spot prices are trending sideways.
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (11.06.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 472.80 | +1.06% | 439.70 |
| Oct 25 | 465.00 | +0.34% | 431.45 |
| Dec 25 | 464.40 | -0.04% | 431.30 |
| Mar 26 | 469.20 | -0.15% | 436.36 |
| May 26 | 470.90 | -0.04% | 438.94 |
| Aug 26 | 471.30 | +0.06% | 439.31 |
(Umrechnungskurs: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Spot Prices Hold Near Lows
📉 FCA spot prices in the EU remain soft at EUR 0.51–0.53/kg, with no significant forward demand visible.
📦 Traders report stagnant interest from the food industry and note that sweetener imports continue to displace raw sugar demand.
🦠 Disease-related concerns (Stolbur) in southern Germany have not yet influenced regional wholesale pricing.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 11.06.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.440 | Mild rebound – short covering likely |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.51–0.53 | Flat buyers remain hesitant |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | No price movement at the consumer level |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Still lowest in Europe |
🌍 Market Factors
- 🌾 Weather remains neutral globally – no drought signals
- 🚢 Brazilian shipping continues to exceed 2023 levels
- 💱 Strong USD limits demand from emerging-market buyers
- 📦 EU factories struggle with margin compression and excess inventory
🔮 3-Day Forecast (12–14 June 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 12 June | 470 – 478 | 437 – 445 |
| 13 June | 468 – 476 | 435 – 443 |
| 14 June | 465 – 474 | 432 – 441 |
📌 Outlook:
Recovery is fragile – unless demand returns, gains may be temporary.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Technical bounce in the August contract reflects position adjustment
📦 EU spot remains muted – no structural improvement seen
🧊 German disease pressure (Stolbur) not yet priced in, but monitored
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Spot FCA offers below EUR 0.53/kg are still standard – use dip
- 📦 Sellers: Use bounce to secure Q3 pricing, don’t overestimate upside
- 📊 Traders: Momentum could push toward USD 478/t, but macro drivers are lacking
📍 Summary:
Small recovery on the board – but no change in fundamentals. EU demand is absent, supply is secure, and only weather or disruption could break the range.