Sugar Market Rebounds on Technical Buying – August Contract Leads the Way

Sugar Market Rebounds on Technical Buying – August Contract Leads the Way

On 11 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures reversed Tuesday’s losses, with the August 2025 contract climbing 1.06% to USD 472.80/t (EUR 439.70/t). Strong volume in the front month (12.698 Kontrakte) and mild short-covering helped lift the market. However, fundamentals remain weak, and EU spot prices are trending sideways.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (11.06.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	472.80	+1.06%	439.70
Oct 25	465.00	+0.34%	431.45
Dec 25	464.40	-0.04%	431.30
Mar 26	469.20	-0.15%	436.36
May 26	470.90	-0.04%	438.94
Aug 26	471.30	+0.06%	439.31

(Umrechnungskurs: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Spot Prices Hold Near Lows

📉 FCA spot prices in the EU remain soft at EUR 0.51–0.53/kg, with no significant forward demand visible.
📦 Traders report stagnant interest from the food industry and note that sweetener imports continue to displace raw sugar demand.
🦠 Disease-related concerns (Stolbur) in southern Germany have not yet influenced regional wholesale pricing.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 11.06.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.440	Mild rebound – short covering likely
EU Spot FCA	0.51–0.53	Flat buyers remain hesitant
Retail Germany	0.69	No price movement at the consumer level
Retail Poland	0.42	Still lowest in Europe

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🌍 Market Factors

• 🌾 Weather remains neutral globally – no drought signals
• 🚢 Brazilian shipping continues to exceed 2023 levels
• 💱 Strong USD limits demand from emerging-market buyers
• 📦 EU factories struggle with margin compression and excess inventory

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (12–14 June 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
12 June	470 – 478	437 – 445
13 June	468 – 476	435 – 443
14 June	465 – 474	432 – 441

📌 Outlook:
Recovery is fragile – unless demand returns, gains may be temporary.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Technical bounce in the August contract reflects position adjustment
📦 EU spot remains muted – no structural improvement seen
🧊 German disease pressure (Stolbur) not yet priced in, but monitored

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Spot FCA offers below EUR 0.53/kg are still standard – use dip
• 📦 Sellers: Use bounce to secure Q3 pricing, don’t overestimate upside
• 📊 Traders: Momentum could push toward USD 478/t, but macro drivers are lacking

📍 Summary:
Small recovery on the board – but no change in fundamentals. EU demand is absent, supply is secure, and only weather or disruption could break the range.