Sugar Market Rises: ICE Futures Firm as Global Supply Faces Headwinds

The global sugar cane market is showing renewed strength, with the ICE Sugar No.11 futures climbing steadily across contract months. As fresh supply challenges emerge and demand dynamics evolve, investors are closely monitoring both fundamentals and speculative flows. In recent months, sugar prices exhibited resilience despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and currency fluctuations. India and Thailand, major exporters, are facing tighter output forecasts due to adverse weather, while Brazil continues to drive global exports but is now encountering logistical bottlenecks from heavier-than-expected rainfall. As a result, prices on key exchanges are trending higher, and volatility is set to remain elevated as new harvest data emerges. Weather across major producing regions is a critical watch factor, impacting planting, harvest scheduling, and ultimately, global stocks. With speculative interest firmly present and external markets (such as oil and ethanol) influencing sentiment, all eyes are on upcoming USDA and ISO reports for further price direction. Here’s a structured breakdown of the current sugar cane market situation and outlook:

📈 Prices: Latest ICE Sugar No.11 Futures

Contract Month	Closing Price (US-Cent/lb)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Mar 26	14.91	+1.61%	Bullish
May 26	14.49	+1.31%	Bullish
Jul 26	14.46	+1.18%	Bullish
Oct 26	14.76	+1.02%	Firm
Mar 27	15.43	+0.97%	Firm
May 27	15.26	+0.85%	Firm
Oct 28	16.06	+0.62%	Optimistic

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s 2024/25 sugar cane crop is threatened by below-normal monsoon forecasts, risking reduced export quotas.
• Brazil, while enjoying strong yields, faces port congestion due to excessive rainfall in the Center-South region.
• Thailand’s output remains subdued amid lingering drought from last year, with all eyes on late-season rainfall.
• Global inventories are trending lower: the ISO projects a moderate deficit for the 2024/25 cycle, supporting price firmness.
• Speculative funds increased net long positions, banking on persistently tight supplies and potential delivery obstacles.

📊 Fundamentals & Key Comparisons

Country	2024 Production Estimate (mln tons)	2024 Stocks (mln tons)	Export Outlook
Brazil	42.0	7.4	Strong (weather disruptions possible)
India	31.5	5.6	Limited (export restrictions likely)
Thailand	8.0	1.1	Reduced
EU	16.0	2.0	Stable (modest imports)
China	10.2	2.3	Heavy importer

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil (Center-South): Heavy rains causing harvest and port delays, risking quality and shipping schedules.
• India: IMD monsoon forecast: slightly below-normal rainfall, raising fears of lower cane yields and future planting reductions.
• Thailand: Neutral-to-dry conditions persist; late July rains could determine final crop size.
• EU: Favorable summer so far, but heatwaves in Southern Europe could trim yields slightly.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers should secure coverage in advance – near-term supply concerns remain, particularly from India and Thailand.
• Producers may consider pricing further out on the curve as market inversion grows less pronounced.
• Speculators: volatility likely as weather and logistics data surprises; consider tight stops on new long positions.
• Monitor ethanol/oil prices – renewed rallies could further tighten the sugar exportable surplus in Brazil.
• Watch for upcoming USDA and ISO reports for updated supply sheets and policy signals.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (ICE US No.11)

Date	Expected Range (US-Cent/lb)	Bias
Day 1	14.80 – 15.10	Firm
Day 2	14.90 – 15.15	Upward risk
Day 3	15.00 – 15.25	Bullish