Sugar Market Slides Further – Global Harvest Pressure Reaches EU Prices

Sugar Market Slides Further – Global Harvest Pressure Reaches EU Prices

On 27 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures continued to decline, with the August 2025 contract closing at USD 482.60/t (EUR 448.82/t), down 0.21%. While losses were modest, the trend remains negative. Even EU spot prices softened for the first time in weeks, now quoted between EUR 0.54–0.56/kg FCA. Expectations of record harvests from Brazil and India further pressure both physical and futures markets.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (27.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	482.60	-0.21%	448.82
Oct 25	478.70	-0.31%	445.19
Dec 25	479.00	-0.21%	445.47
Mar 26	482.80	-0.19%	449.01
May 26	481.80	-0.21%	448.08
Aug 26	480.00	-0.25%	446.40

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Spot Prices Break Lower

📉 Spot prices in the EU fell slightly, now quoted at EUR 0.54–0.56/kg FCA, compared to 0.56–0.59/kg earlier this month.
📦 Pressure is mounting from:

• Slow EU demand
• Increased availability of high-intensity sweeteners
• Record harvest expectations in Brazil and India
  🧊 Many traders report buy-side hesitation even at lower levels.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 27.05.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.449	Down again – nearing multi-month low
EU Spot FCA	0.54–0.56	First downward shift in weeks
Retail Germany	0.69	Unchanged
Retail Poland	0.42	Still lowest in the EU

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🌍 Global Pressure: Record Harvests Ahead

🌾 India and Brazil are expected to deliver record-breaking sugar crops in 2025.
🚢 This adds export pressure, especially into markets like the EU, MENA, and Asia.
🌤️ Weather in the Northern Hemisphere remains neutral-to-bearish for sugar – no drought risk as of now.

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (28–30 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
28 May	478 – 488	444 – 454
29 May	475 – 485	442 – 451
30 May	472 – 482	439 – 449

📌 Outlook:
Short-term pressure is likely to persist. Traders eye USD 475/t as key support.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 Market sentiment remains weak – technicals and fundamentals aligned to downside.
📦 EU sellers are slowly adjusting FCA offers, but buyers remain conservative.
🌎 Global harvest news overshadows local pricing strategies.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Advantageous position – push for FCA below EUR 0.55/kg.
• 📦 Sellers: Lower forward targets – focus on export flexibility.
• 📊 Traders: Momentum still bearish – avoid premature long entries.

📍 Summary:
Futures and EU prices are slipping hand in hand – global oversupply sentiment dominates. Without weather disruption, bulls are unlikely to return.