Sugar Market Slides Further – ICE Futures Extend Decline Below USD 490/t
On 16 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures continued their downward trajectory. The August 2025 contract closed at USD 490.10/t (EUR 455.80/t), down 0.59%. The market has now lost nearly USD 20 since the recent peak. Meanwhile, EU FCA spot prices remain fixed at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, while internal EU price pressure continues to mount due to excess supply and competitive offers.
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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (16.05.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 490.10 | -0.59% | 455.80 |
| Oct 25 | 486.80 | -0.51% | 452.72 |
| Dec 25 | 486.50 | -0.41% | 452.44 |
| Mar 26 | 489.50 | -0.37% | 455.17 |
| May 26 | 487.50 | -0.35% | 453.38 |
| Aug 26 | 484.90 | -0.33% | 450.96 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Insight – Price Gap Widens
📍 EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, despite global declines.
📉 Several EU producers have held prices steady, citing energy costs and tight contracts.
🇩🇪 German suppliers continue to push above EUR 0.60/kg – unsuccessfully, as buyers shift toward Polish and Dutch offers.
🧊 Physical market is inactive – few new forward contracts reported.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, as of 16.05.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Market Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.456 | Based on USD 490.10/t |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.56–0.59 | No movement despite the futures decline |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Stable (Kaufland) |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Remains lowest |
🔮 3-Day Forecast (17–19 May 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May | 485 – 495 | 451 – 460 |
| 18 May | 480 – 490 | 446 – 456 |
| 19 May | 478 – 488 | 444 – 454 |
📌 Outlook:
Further downside is likely unless buyers re-enter or macro sentiment shifts.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 ICE futures continue softening, weighed by technical momentum and macro calm.
🇪🇺 EU spot prices are decoupled – holding at higher levels but facing growing pressure.
🛍️ Retail remains stable – no pass-through of volatility.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Strong position – press for lower FCA spot levels below EUR 0.57/kg.
- 📦 Sellers: Margin compression likely – flexibility will be rewarded.
- 📊 Traders: Monitor USD 488/t as short-term support; below that, momentum may accelerate.
📍 Summary:
The sugar market is cooling off – futures falling, EU holding, and real buying still on hold.