📈 Sugar Market Update: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices Surge Amid Supply Concerns
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw significant gains, with the May 2025 contract jumping by 4.13% to USD 564.80/t (EUR 525.26/t). Short-term contracts led the rally, while long-term contracts showed only moderate gains. The sharp price increase is fueled by supply concerns, speculative buying, and increased industrial demand. However, EU sugar prices remain stable between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as oversupply and weak consumption keep upward movements in check.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 564.80 | €525.26 | +23.30 | +21.67 | +4.13% |
| Aug 25 | 546.80 | €508.52 | +19.70 | +18.34 | +3.60% |
| Oct 25 | 534.30 | €497.90 | +16.30 | +15.17 | +3.15% |
| Dec 25 | 528.00 | €491.04 | +12.60 | +11.72 | +2.45% |
| Mar 26 | 522.50 | €486.93 | +9.00 | +8.37 | +1.75% |
| May 26 | 519.30 | €484.13 | +7.50 | +6.98 | +1.47% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Short-Term Contracts Surge Amid Tight Supply & Speculative Buying 📈
- Short-term contracts (May-Dec 2025) saw the strongest gains, indicating immediate supply concerns.
- Speculative interest remains high, with strong trading volumes in near-term contracts.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Prices Despite Global Price Surge 🇪🇺
- EU sugar prices remain at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as oversupply and weak demand prevent price hikes.
- Producers continue offering new season contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, though buyers remain hesitant.
🔹 Supply Risks Keep Markets Elevated 🌎
- Geopolitical instability and weather risks are driving uncertainty in the sugar supply.
- India’s production remains weak, while Brazil and Thailand continue steady exports.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (18.03 – 20.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 560 – 570 USD/t (520 – 529 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Further price increases are possible in the short term, but strong technical resistance is expected.
- The EU market remains stable, with no major demand spikes anticipated.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing drastic price movements.
- Imports continue to offset weaker domestic consumption, maintaining price stability.
- Ethanol production remains steady, keeping sugar allocations consistent.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices surged due to speculative trading and supply concerns.
✅ The EU market remains weak, with producers pushing higher contract prices.
✅ Global sugar supply remains balanced, preventing extreme price spikes.
✅ Further price volatility is expected, but long-term upside is uncertain.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Be cautious—higher contract prices for the next season may not be justified if supply remains stable.
🔹 Sellers: Consider locking in sales while speculative demand remains strong.
🔹 Traders: Watch for resistance near 570 USD/t (529 EUR/t) for potential price reversals.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!
