📉 Sugar Prices Decline Further Amid Weak Demand & Market Adjustments
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued to decline, with the May 2025 contract dropping by 0.99% to USD 516.90/t (EUR 480.74/t). The ongoing weakness reflects persistent demand concerns, market adjustments, and improved supply outlooks. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain stable between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as industrial demand remains lackluster.
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 516.90 | €480.74 | -5.10 | -4.74 | -0.99% |
| Aug 25 | 499.50 | €464.54 | -3.80 | -3.53 | -0.76% |
| Oct 25 | 493.00 | €458.49 | -2.20 | -2.04 | -0.45% |
| Dec 25 | 490.80 | €456.44 | -1.50 | -1.39 | -0.31% |
| Mar 26 | 491.90 | €457.47 | -1.30 | -1.21 | -0.26% |
| May 26 | 490.80 | €456.44 | -0.90 | -0.84 | -0.18% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Weak Demand Continues to Pressure Prices 📉
- Industrial buyers remain cautious, limiting upward price movement.
- No significant new buying activity has been recorded in the past few sessions.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Prices 🇪🇺
- Prices remain at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, with no significant shifts in demand.
- Stock levels remain stable, preventing major price fluctuations.
- Imports continue to flow into the EU market, keeping supplies abundant.
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🔹 Stable Global Supply Outlook 🌎
- India’s production remains below expectations, but exports have not been restricted.
- Brazil’s sugar production remains strong, maintaining balanced global supply.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (07.03 – 09.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 510 – 520 USD/t (474 – 482 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices may continue to decline, with little support from demand.
- Short-term corrections are possible, but a rebound is unlikely without renewed buying interest.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing sharp price movements.
- Imports continue to support supply, balancing weaker domestic demand.
- Ethanol production remains stable, keeping sugar allocations steady.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices continue to decline due to weak demand & technical selling.
✅ EU market remains under pressure, with no signs of higher prices.
✅ Global supply remains stable, preventing major price surges.
✅ Further market consolidation is likely, with limited upside potential.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Monitor price developments, as further declines could offer better purchasing opportunities.
🔹 Sellers: Be cautious, as prices will unlikely increase in the short term.
🔹 Traders: Look for potential support levels around USD 510/t (EUR 474/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!