Sugar Prices Extend Recovery – Fund Buying and Oil Strength Push ICE No.5 Higher

📈 Sugar Market Extends Gains – Futures Approach Key Resistance Zone

On 9 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued their upward momentum. The August 2025 contract closed 1.00% higher at USD 499.90/t (EUR 464.91/t). Strong buying interest lifted all active contracts by nearly 1%, yet EU spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA, raising questions about sustainability and the disconnect between physical and futures markets.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (09.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	499.90	+1.00%	464.91
Oct 25	492.20	+1.32%	457.75
Dec 25	490.50	+1.33%	456.17
Mar 26	493.10	+1.26%	458.58
May 26	491.80	+1.18%	457.37
Aug 26	490.20	+1.08%	455.89

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Consistent Strength – Testing Resistance at USD 500/t
– Momentum remains intact as funds continue to buy into short-term strength.
– However, fundamentals (supply/demand balance) remain neutral at best, casting doubt on rally endurance.

🇪🇺 EU Market Still Unmoved
– FCA spot quotes steady at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, with no price concessions from producers.
– Buyers continue to resist forward pricing above EUR 0.60/kg, citing falling global benchmarks.

🛍️ Retail Prices Remain Flat Across EU Markets
– Retail price levels remain disconnected from industrial FCA levels, especially in Central and Eastern Europe.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 09.05.2025)

Last verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price	Currency	Price_EUR
Poland	Topaz	1,69	PLN	0,39
Poland	Stokrotka	1,78	PLN	0,41
Poland	Biedronka	1,99	PLN	0,46
Germany	Kaufland	0,69	EUR	0,69
Switzerland	Denner	0,75	CHF	0,77
Hungary	Lidl	309	HUF	0,8
Germany	Norma	0,89	EUR	0,89
Spain	Carrefour	0,89	EUR	0,89
Hungary	Auchan	349	HUF	0,91
Netherlands	Jumbo	0,93	EUR	0,93
Netherlands	Dirk	0,93	EUR	0,93
Spain	Mercadona	1	EUR	1
Switzerland	Lidl	1	CHF	1,02
Austria	Penny	1,09	EUR	1,09
Austria	Lidl	1,11	EUR	1,11
UK	Tesco	1,09	GBP	1,26
France	E.Leclerc	1,39	EUR	1,39

 

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (10–12 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
10 May	495 – 505	460 – 470
11 May	493 – 503	458 – 468
12 May	490 – 500	456 – 465

📌 Outlook:
Rally may continue in the short term, but risks of reversal grow if fundamentals don’t improve.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Strong market performance across all contracts.
❌ EU physical pricing remains static – disconnected from the world trend.
📉 Consumer prices suggest no pass-through – margin compression likely.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Push back on EU spot offers – leverage global softness.
• 📦 Sellers: Use strength to lock forward contracts – but avoid overpricing.
• 📊 Traders: Watch for reversal signals at USD 500–505/t – technical ceiling approaching.

📍 Summary: The rally continues, but sentiment and structure still do not align. Caution advised.