📉 Sugar Prices Reverse Sharply – Futures Drop Over 1.5% After Technical Rally
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures fell significantly across all contracts on 3 April 2025. The May 2025 contract dropped by 1.67% to USD 543.80/t (EUR 505.73/t) after failing to break above resistance near USD 555/t. The sharp correction shows that the recent price rally was speculative and unsupported by fundamentals, as EU spot prices remain flat at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Price Overview (03.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 543.80 | -1.67% | 505.73 |
| Aug 25 | 533.60 | -1.72% | 496.25 |
| Oct 25 | 529.40 | -1.59% | 492.34 |
| Dec 25 | 526.60 | -1.44% | 489.74 |
| Mar 26 | 524.40 | -1.45% | 487.69 |
| May 26 | 518.60 | -1.37% | 482.30 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Drivers & Commentary
🔻 Failed Breakout Triggers Sell-Off
– After two strong sessions, sugar futures reversed sharply.
– Traders took profits as contracts neared technical resistance at USD 555–560/t.
📉 EU Spot Prices Still Unchanged
– No follow-through in the physical market.
– Spot prices remain at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA remain largely ignored.
🛒 Retail Pricing Pressure Continues
– Polish discount pricing around EUR 0.37/kg still weighs on market sentiment.
– Producers increasingly frustrated by lack of volume at higher price levels.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (04–06 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr | 535 – 545 | 498 – 507 |
| 05 Apr | 532 – 542 | 495 – 504 |
| 06 Apr | 530 – 540 | 493 – 502 |
📌 Outlook:
Expect further weakness or sideways action unless demand returns. Technical traders will watch for stabilization near USD 535/t.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Prices fell sharply – confirming the rally lacked follow-through.
❌ EU market remains stagnant and disconnected from paper rally.
📉 Retail & industrial buyers continue to wait for lower levels.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Continue to wait – no urgency to chase prices.
- 🏭 Sellers: Avoid forward pricing unless linked to volume commitments.
- 📊 Traders: Watch for support at 535 USD/t (498 EUR/t) – downside risk remains.
📍 Q2 starts with volatility – but no firm direction yet.
