Sugar Reverses Gains – August Drops USD 10 on Heavy Selling

Sugar Reverses Gains – August Drops USD 10 on Heavy Selling

On 10 July 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures gave back nearly all of the previous session’s gains. The August 2025 contract fell 2.07% to USD 482.50/t (EUR 447.68/t) in a broad sell-off across the curve. A lack of follow-through from the physical market and technical resistance at USD 495 triggered a wave of long liquidation. Spot prices in the EU remain static.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (10.07.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	482.50	-2.07%	447.68
Oct 25	472.20	-1.74%	438.14
Dec 25	461.50	-1.30%	427.93
Mar 26	463.90	-1.27%	429.98
May 26	466.60	-1.37%	432.43
Aug 26	467.70	-1.37%	433.47

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.928 EUR – ECB reference 10.07.2025)

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🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Stable, But Outlook Weakens

📦 Spot prices remain at EUR 0.52–0.54/kg FCA, unchanged for the sixth consecutive session.
📉 Traders report that selling interest is rising as EU stock levels remain high.
🔻 Sentiment is turning more bearish despite resilient retail pricing.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 10.07.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.448	Drop after resistance at 495 USD/t
EU Spot FCA	0.52–0.54	Still firm – but downside risk growing
Retail Germany	0.69	No changes – remains steady
Retail Poland	0.42	Discounted – lowest in EU

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🌍 Market Drivers

• 📉 Technical rejection near USD 495 – selling accelerated
• 📦 Weak follow-through from physical buyers
• 🛢️ Energy prices flat – no ethanol-driven support
• 🇧🇷 No change in Brazil’s harvest outlook

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🔮 3-Day Outlook (11–13 July 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
11 July	475 – 485	440 – 449
12 July	470 – 480	435 – 444
13 July	468 – 478	433 – 443

📌 Outlook:
A weak close suggests that more downside is possible. Technical support is seen around USD 470/t. There is no fundamental support for a renewed rally unless physical off-take improves.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 Rally fizzled – ICE sugar retraces sharply after testing resistance
📦 Spot market unchanged – but softening tone behind the scenes
⚠️ Market caught in speculative swings – physical lagging

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Wait for clearer signs of stabilisation
• 📦 Sellers: Lock in forward contracts if support near USD 470 holds
• 📊 Traders: Tight range watch – USD 470/t is key technical level

📍 Summary:
ICE sugar futures reversed course sharply after testing technical resistance near USD 495/t. Without physical market support, the move proved unsustainable. Caution remains warranted.