Sugar Reverses Gains – August Drops USD 10 on Heavy Selling

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Sugar Reverses Gains – August Drops USD 10 on Heavy Selling

On 10 July 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures gave back nearly all of the previous session’s gains. The August 2025 contract fell 2.07% to USD 482.50/t (EUR 447.68/t) in a broad sell-off across the curve. A lack of follow-through from the physical market and technical resistance at USD 495 triggered a wave of long liquidation. Spot prices in the EU remain static.


📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (10.07.2025)

Contract Close (USD/t) Change (%) Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25 482.50 -2.07% 447.68
Oct 25 472.20 -1.74% 438.14
Dec 25 461.50 -1.30% 427.93
Mar 26 463.90 -1.27% 429.98
May 26 466.60 -1.37% 432.43
Aug 26 467.70 -1.37% 433.47

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.928 EUR – ECB reference 10.07.2025)


🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Stable, But Outlook Weakens

📦 Spot prices remain at EUR 0.52–0.54/kg FCA, unchanged for the sixth consecutive session.
📉 Traders report that selling interest is rising as EU stock levels remain high.
🔻 Sentiment is turning more bearish despite resilient retail pricing.


🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 10.07.2025)

Country Supermarket Price per kg (EUR)
Germany Kaufland 0.69 €
Poland Biedronka 0.42 €
Switzerland Coop 1.45 €
Belgium Carrefour 1.60 €
France Carrefour 1.60 €
Austria Penny 1.09 €
Netherlands Albert Heijn 1.04 €
Hungary Lidl 0.80 €

📊 Price Comparison Table

Market Price (EUR/kg) Comment
ICE Futures (Aug) 0.448 Drop after resistance at 495 USD/t
EU Spot FCA 0.52–0.54 Still firm – but downside risk growing
Retail Germany 0.69 No changes – remains steady
Retail Poland 0.42 Discounted – lowest in EU

🌍 Market Drivers

  • 📉 Technical rejection near USD 495 – selling accelerated
  • 📦 Weak follow-through from physical buyers
  • 🛢️ Energy prices flat – no ethanol-driven support
  • 🇧🇷 No change in Brazil’s harvest outlook

🔮 3-Day Outlook (11–13 July 2025)

Date USD/t Range EUR/t Range
11 July 475 – 485 440 – 449
12 July 470 – 480 435 – 444
13 July 468 – 478 433 – 443

📌 Outlook:
A weak close suggests that more downside is possible. Technical support is seen around USD 470/t. There is no fundamental support for a renewed rally unless physical off-take improves.


🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 Rally fizzled – ICE sugar retraces sharply after testing resistance
📦 Spot market unchanged – but softening tone behind the scenes
⚠️ Market caught in speculative swings – physical lagging

📌 Recommendations:

  • 🛒 Buyers: Wait for clearer signs of stabilisation
  • 📦 Sellers: Lock in forward contracts if support near USD 470 holds
  • 📊 Traders: Tight range watch – USD 470/t is key technical level

📍 Summary:
ICE sugar futures reversed course sharply after testing technical resistance near USD 495/t. Without physical market support, the move proved unsustainable. Caution remains warranted.