Sunflower Kernel Market Holds Steady – South African Prices Move Higher

Sunflower Kernel Market Holds Steady – South African Prices Move Higher

Sunflower kernel prices across Eastern Europe remained steady this week. While activity in the EU remains subdued, the SAFEX market in South Africa showed solid gains on Thursday, driven by renewed local demand and a stronger export outlook.

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📊 Market Overview – Spot Prices & SAFEX Futures

Origin/Country	Contract	Price (Local)	Daily Change	Trend
Ukraine (FCA)	Spot	€1.05/kg	➡️	➡️
Bulgaria (FCA)	Spot	€1.09/kg	➡️	➡️
South Africa	Jul 25	ZAR 9,214/t	+102 ZAR	⬆️
South Africa	Sep 25	ZAR 9,410/t	+105 ZAR	⬆️

📝 Note: Prices in Eastern Europe remain unchanged, while South African markets see higher demand.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• EU Demand Remains Flat
  European buyers remain cautious and reluctant to commit to Q3 contracts. Spot trading is quiet, with no significant forward business reported this week.
• South African Market Tightens
  SAFEX prices rose sharply due to strong local demand and slower delivery pace from interior regions. Crushers are bidding more aggressively for available volume.
• Export Flow from Ukraine & Moldova Continues
  Despite political uncertainty, logistics from the Black Sea region are functioning well, keeping a lid on price volatility.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook

The sunflower kernel market is structurally stable, with short-term upside seen only in isolated regional markets like SAFEX.

Recommendations:
– Importers: Maintain cautious coverage, seek discounts below €1.05/kg
– Exporters: Focus on prompt shipments with flexible delivery terms
– Traders: Watch SAFEX for arbitrage opportunities into Southern Europe

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (FCA EU Delivery)

Date	Ukraine (€/kg)	Bulgaria (€/kg)	SAFEX (ZAR/t)	Outlook
May 23	1.05	1.09	9,214	➡️ Stable
May 24	1.04–1.06	1.08–1.10	9,250–9,300	➡️ Mild support
May 25	1.04–1.07	1.08–1.10	9,300–9,450	⬆️ SAFEX strength

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Regions

Region	Trend	Notes
Ukraine	🌤️ Calm	Ideal planting conditions; crop is developing well
Bulgaria	🌦️ Some rain	Mixed conditions; no stress yet
South Africa	☀️ Post-harvest	Supplies are tight; stock rotation is slow inland

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